AI Model:

Josh Hart▲

NYK · SG

PPG

12.1

RPG

7.6

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.5

12.1

15.6

RPG+1.0

7.6

8.6

APG-1.7

5.1

3.4

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

CLE

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CLE: 10 pts

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 12 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 10 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 7 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 33 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 7.5FANDUEL

56%

AST

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

67%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

72%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

PRA

UNDER 25.5FANDUEL

58%

R+A

UNDER 13.5FANDUEL

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.2

10.6

RPG

8.0

6.8

APG

5.2

4.5

vs WAS (H2H)15 games

PPG

13.3

RPG

8.4

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	4	19	57%	-2.5%	medium
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	4	16	64%	+11.3%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	12	56%	-6.2%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	10	59%

Hart’s all-around floor is solid, but the scoring ceiling is capped

Josh Hart’s season line of 12.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists is backed by a strong home split: 14.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 5.2 APG in 9 home games. His last 5 games show a scoring spike at 15.6 PPG, but that comes with a lower 28.2 MPG and is well above his season norm, so some regression is likely. The matchup is favorable overall with Washington carrying a 124.06 defensive rating, but Hart is also listed questionable with a right knee issue, which adds volatility to his minutes and usage. With teammate Landry Shamet out and Washington missing multiple rotation pieces, Hart still has a usable all-around profile, but the safest read is on his passing and modest scoring rather than chasing an inflated ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↑ from 12.1)

RPG

8.6(↑ from 7.6)

APG

3.4(↓ from 5.1)

Key Matchup

Washington’s defensive rating is 124.06, which is a soft environment for production, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders. Alex Sarr, Justin Champagnie, Kyshawn George, and Tre Johnson are all out for Washington, which improves the overall matchup context for Hart.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Josh Hart▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	16	✗
Josh Hart▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	6	✓
Josh Hart▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	4	✓
Josh Hart▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Josh Hart▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	2	✗
Josh Hart▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Josh Hart▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	26	✗
Josh Hart▼	R+A	13.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A15.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

R+A11.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Hart

Assists UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fade versus his current production profile: 5.05 APG for the season, 4.4 over the last 10, and just 3.4 over the last 5. The 5.5 line is above those marks, and his questionable knee status adds extra risk to both minutes and playmaking volume.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bub Carrington	3	3	0	0%	0%
Bilal Coulibaly	3	3	7	40%	60%
CJ McCollum	1	2	3	25%	38%
Cam Whitmore	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jamir Watkins	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.1 PPG, and the home split is 14.2 PPG, but the last 5 at 15.6 PPG is notably above the season baseline and likely to regress. The questionable right knee tag adds downside to scoring volume.

reboundsUNDER 7.556%MEDIUM

He averages 7.6 RPG on the season and 8.0 RPG at home, so this is close to fair value. Because the line is 7.5 and his recent minutes are only 27.8 MPG, I lean slightly under in a conservative spot.

assistsUNDER 5.567%MEDIUM

Hart’s season mean is 5.05 APG, but his last 5 dropped to 3.4 APG and his recent mean is 4.4. The current 5.5 line sits above both his season and recent production, making the under the cleaner side.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.48 threes per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, so this is right at the threshold. With a questionable status and no strong edge beyond the number, the under is slightly safer.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

Hart’s season steal rate is 1.1 SPG and his last 5 is 0.8, both below a 1.5 line. His defensive counting stats are useful, but the number is too high for his baseline.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages only 0.3 BPG on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 blocks an inefficient over target.

praUNDER 25.558%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 24.8 PRA, and his recent 5-game form is elevated mainly by scoring rather than assists. Because combo props carry more variance, I prefer the under at this threshold.

raUNDER 13.563%MEDIUM

Hart’s season rebounds plus assists average is 12.7, with last 10 at 12.5 and last 5 at 12.0. The 13.5 line is above all of those baselines, so the under has the better profile.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS