AI Model:

Mikal Bridges▲

NYK · SF

PPG

14.7

RPG

4.1

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

8.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-6.3

14.7

8.4

RPG+0.5

4.1

4.6

APG-1.6

3.8

2.2

SPG-1.0

1.4

0.4

BPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 11 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 15 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 9 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 0 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 7 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 5 pts

IND

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs IND: 11 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 7 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 10 pts

BKN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BKN: 9 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

P+R

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

61%

R+A

OVER 7.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.0

11.2

RPG

4.4

3.8

APG

2.4

3.3

vs WAS (H2H)16 games

PPG

17.1

RPG

4.6

APG

3.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	23	35%	-13.5%	medium
Norman Powell	4	21	56%	-2.6%	medium
Brandon Ingram	4	17	64%	+8.3%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	14	60%

Bridges’ scoring looks capped, but the matchup keeps ancillary stats in play

Mikal Bridges is trending well below his season scoring level, with 8.4 PPG over the last 5 and last 10 versus 14.7 PPG on the season, while his minutes have also dipped from 33.4 to 29.7. He does have a strong history against Washington, averaging 17.0625 PPG, 4.625 RPG, and 3.4375 APG in 16 games, but the current form and reduced recent run make the scoring ceiling less secure. Washington’s defense has a 124.06 defensive rating and this game projects to a fast 100 pace, but the season-to-recent gap suggests regression toward his lower recent output. With Landry Shamet out and no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed team defenders, the safest angle is on moderate-volume unders rather than chasing a bounce-back.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.4(↓ from 14.7)

RPG

4.6(→ from 4.1)

APG

2.2(↓ from 3.8)

Stocks

1.4(↓ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Washington’s team defense is poor by the data provided, with a 124.06 defensive rating, and the game pace is listed at 100.0. Key defender data is limited and no specific defender matchup data is available, so the analysis leans more on team defense and absences than individual containment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Mikal Bridges▼	Points	12.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	10%	14	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✗
Mikal Bridges▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	2	✗
Mikal Bridges▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Mikal Bridges▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	14	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	R+A	7.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	6	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+R15UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

R+A6UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Mikal Bridges

Points OVER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the file, with a 21.6% best edge at BetMGM and our over probability at 0.728. The line is below his 14.7 season average and well below his 17.0625 PPG in 16 career games vs Washington, giving the over a strong statistical cushion despite the recent slump.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bub Carrington	3	11	8	40%	40%
CJ McCollum	1	3	0	0%	0%
Kyshawn George	1	3	2	25%	25%
Bilal Coulibaly	3	2	0	0%	0%
AJ Johnson	2	1	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 12.572%HIGH

The value data shows a 21.6% edge at 12.5 points with our over probability at 0.728, and his season average is 14.7 PPG. Even with the cold last-5 stretch at 8.4 PPG, the line sits below his season mean and below his strong 17.0625 PPG vs Washington history.

reboundsUNDER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.1 RPG on the season and 4.4 RPG over the last 10, which is still slightly below this number. The recent minutes dip to 29.7 from 33.4 also makes the over less appealing, especially with a low-confidence rebound profile given 2.14 season std.

assistsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.83 APG, but the last 5 have fallen to 2.2 APG and the last 10 to 2.8 APG. This is a volatile category for him, and the recent playmaking drop makes the under the better side despite the near-season line.

threesUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

Bridges is at 1.94 threes per game on the season, but only 1.0 over the last 5 and 1.0 over the last 10. That recent dip, plus his lower recent minutes, supports the under on 1.5 made threes.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.2 stocks on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, which still clears this type of line. The category has variance, but his combined defensive event rate is meaningfully above the threshold.

prUNDER 17.561%MEDIUM

Using the season means, his points plus rebounds come out to 18.8, but the recent scoring slump makes this combo fragile. The last-5 scoring drop to 8.4 PPG drags the overall projection toward the under at this number.

raOVER 7.557%MEDIUM

He averages 4.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists for a season baseline of 7.9 RA, which is just above the line. This is a narrow edge and the recent assist dip lowers confidence, but the season profile still slightly favors over.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS