Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennedict Mathurin | 2 | 3 | 50% | +6.4% | low |
| Jaden Hardy | 2 | 3 | 75% | +6.4% | low |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 2 | 3 | 25% | -18.6% | low |
| Bruce Brown | 2 | 3 | 100% |
Mohamed Diawara’s season line is modest at 3.5 PPG, 1.5 RPG, and 0.7 APG in 8.9 MPG, and his recent production has only ticked up with the extra run: 5.0 PPG and 14.2 MPG over the last 5. The increase is tied to a larger role with Landry Shamet out, but the underlying trend is still volatile, with his last 10 showing 5.5 PPG and the recent game log including multiple low-output nights. Washington’s team defense data is not especially restrictive, but his own vs-opponent sample is tiny and low at 2.5 PPG and 4 MPG, which keeps the projection conservative.
The key defender list does include Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, and Anthony Gill, but no specific defender matchup data is available for Diawara. Washington’s opponent defense numbers are soft overall, with a 124.06 defensive rating and 100 pace, but there is no direct individual matchup evidence here.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mohamed Diawara▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 86%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 12 | ✗ |
Mohamed Diawara▼ | Rebounds | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Mohamed Diawara▼ | Assists | 0.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
Mohamed Diawara▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 79%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season scoring is 3.5 PPG, his recent 5-game run is 5.0 PPG, and the value model shows a 16.2% edge on the under with 28.99 EV. Even with Shamet out and some extra minutes, Diawara has not shown enough stable scoring volume to justify the over at 7.5.
| low |
| Royce O'Neale | 2 | 3 | 150% | +56.4% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Hardy | 1 | 2 | 6 | 40% | 60% |
| Jamir Watkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Leaky Black | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Anthony Gill | 2 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
His season average is only 3.5 PPG, and even his recent bump to 5.0 PPG over the last 5 is still well below 7.5. The value data is strong on the under, with a 16.2% edge and 28.99 EV on the under.
He averages 1.5 RPG on the season and 2.8 RPG over the last 5, so 1.5 is reachable if the minutes stay elevated near 14-15. This is a lower-confidence over because his role still fluctuates heavily game to game.
His season average is 0.7 APG and he’s at 1.6 APG over the last 5, making 0.5 a modest threshold. The recent minute bump is the main support, though the assist sample remains volatile.
Diawara averages 0.75 threes per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 5, still below a 1.5 line. The value props also favor the under with a 11.0%+ edge depending on the book.