AI Model:

Tristan Vukcevic▼

WAS · C

PPG

8.6

RPG

3.1

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

13.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.2

8.6

13.8

RPG+0.9

3.1

4.0

APG-0.3

1.1

0.8

SPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

ATL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs ATL: 5 pts

ATL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ATL: 11 pts

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 13 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 22 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 9 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 21 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 6 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

67%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

74%

AST

UNDER 1.5

61%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

OVER 2

63%

P+R

UNDER 15.5FANDUEL

64%

P+A

UNDER 13.5BETMGM

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.3

9.6

RPG

4.4

3.2

APG

1.5

1.3

vs NYK (H2H)3 games

PPG

2.7

RPG

0.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Onyeka Okongwu	3	10	30%	-17.9%	medium
Jay Huff	4	9	95%	+32.1%	medium
Paul Reed	3	7	60%	+12.1%	medium
Jakob Poeltl	2	6	100%

Minutes boost from absences, but rebounds and points still lean under

Tristan Vukcevic’s role is elevated with Alex Sarr, Justin Champagnie, Kyshawn George, and Tre Johnson all out, and his minutes have already climbed from a season mark of 13.5 to 17.8 in his recent sample. The production spike is real in the last 5 games at 13.8 PPG and 4.0 RPG, but the broader trend is down across the last 10 and he has a weak head-to-head profile vs New York at 2.7 PPG in 3 games. With Washington on a back-to-back and the Knicks allowing a 110.34 defensive rating environment, the volume boost helps, but the prop lines still sit above his season baseline.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.8(↑ from 8.6)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 3.1)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.1)

3PM

1.9(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited here, and there is no specific defender matchup data to project a direct one-on-one edge. New York’s opponent profile shows a 110.34 defensive rating, 100 pace, and slightly negative three suppression, which is a neutral-to-slightly difficult environment for counting stats.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	13	✗
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	70%	1	✓
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
Tristan Vukcevic▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Tristan Vukcevic▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	100%	0	✓
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Tristan Vukcevic▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	14	✓
Tristan Vukcevic▼	P+A	13.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	14	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA18.5UNDER2%logisticStrong Leg (16/20)9/1850%Scorecard changed +4.0▼

PTS11.5OVER14%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x11/1861%+5.2% edgeScorecard changed +3.0▼

REB4.5UNDER20%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x6/1833%+7.0% edgeConfidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R17UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)6/1833%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM1.5OVER14%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)10/1856%+9.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.247; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x8/1844%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A14OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x9/1850%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Tristan Vukcevic

Rebounds UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 3.1 RPG, the away mean is 3.2 RPG, and the value model gives the UNDER a 73.9% projected hit rate. Even with extra minutes from teammate absences, 4.5 is still above his normal rebound range.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	3	7	33%	50%
Ariel Hukporti	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jalen Brunson	1	1	7	33%	42%
Mohamed Diawara	2	1	0	0%	0%
Mitchell Robinson	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 10.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.6 PPG and his away mean is 7.04 PPG, both below this line. The last 5 at 13.8 is elevated, but the last 10 at 11.2 and the overall downward trend suggest some regression.

reboundsUNDER 4.574%HIGH

He averages 3.1 RPG on the season and 3.2 RPG away, well short of 4.5. The value data also strongly favors UNDER with a 73.9% projected under probability.

assistsUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.1 APG and the last 5 is 0.8, so 1.5 is slightly above his normal output. The recent role increase has not translated into consistent assist volume.

threesUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 threes per game on the season, and while the last 5 is 1.9, that is well above normal and likely to cool off. The season baseline is still below the line.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The higher recent minute load supports a modest over lean.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.04 and last 10 is 0.7, both below 1.5. The variance is also high enough to keep confidence conservative.

turnoversOVER 263%MEDIUM

He has 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 2.0 over the last 10, with increased usage from absences. That makes 2.0 a live over despite some variance.

prUNDER 15.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 11.7 combined, and even with recent improvement the role-adjusted output does not clearly support 15.5. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is safer.

paUNDER 13.560%MEDIUM

He averages 8.6 points and 1.1 assists on the season, and the assist piece is not strong enough to push this over consistently. The recent scoring surge is offset by low passing volume.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS