Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan da Silva | 3 | 11 | 17% | -29.0% | medium |
| Jayson Tatum | 1 | 7 | 64% | +11.4% | low |
| Kevin Huerter | 3 | 6 | 20% | -25.7% | medium |
| Zach LaVine | 2 | 6 | 17% |
Will Riley’s role has expanded sharply, with his last 5 games jumping to 14.2 PPG in 34.6 MPG versus a season mark of 8.8 PPG in 20.2 MPG. The extra usage is real, but the recent scoring surge sits well above his season baseline, and the data shows a stronger case for regression than for chasing the hot streak. Washington is also on a back-to-back, which adds some risk to minute stability, while New York’s defensive profile and 2-day rest support a tougher scoring environment. With multiple Wizards teammates out, his floor for volume is elevated, but the market is still pricing him above his season-level production.
The Knicks have a defensive rating of 110.34 and a scoring suppression of -1.138, which points to a tougher scoring spot overall. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Riley▼ | Points | 15.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | 11 | ✓ |
Will Riley▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Will Riley▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 4 | ✗ |
Will Riley▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
Will Riley▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Will Riley▼ | P+R | 19.5 | UNDER | 73%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | 12 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest angle because the season average is only 8.8 PPG, and the available value data repeatedly favors the under at 15.5 with a large probability edge. The recent 14.2 PPG stretch is real, but it’s still below the line and comes with back-to-back risk plus a tougher defensive setting.
| low |
| Ausar Thompson | 3 | 6 | 80% | +34.3% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Clarkson | 3 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Mikal Bridges | 2 | 3 | 5 | 50% | 63% |
| Josh Hart | 2 | 2 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Dillon Jones | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Mohamed Diawara | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Season mean is 8.84 PPG, and even with the recent surge to 15.2 over the last 10, the market line of 15.5 is still above his longer-run scoring level. The value data also shows a strong UNDER with 0.772 projected under probability and negative over EV.
He averages 2.56 RPG on the season and 3.3 over the last 5, but the 3.5 line sits above both his season mean and home mean of 2.48. The recent rebounding pop is helpful, but the overall profile still points slightly below this number.
Riley’s season mean is 1.7 APG and his last 10 is 2.4, but that is still not enough to make 2.5 a strong over target. The prop metrics also show a very high season_std of 1.61, so confidence should stay moderate rather than aggressive.
He’s at 0.95 threes per game for the season and 1.9 over the last 5, but the 1.5 line is above his season baseline. The recent bump is notable, yet the season mean and multiple books still price the under as the better side.
His season stocks average is 0.72 and his recent 5-game mark is only 0.4, both well below a 1.5 threshold. With blocks at 0.1 and steals at 0.6 on the season, this is a low-ceiling combo.
His season points plus rebounds baseline is 11.36, and even with recent form, 19.5 is a steep ask relative to the long sample. The combo prop carries extra variance, so the safer read is under.