AI Model:

Will Riley—

WAS · PF

PPG

8.8

RPG

2.6

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

14.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.4

8.8

14.2

RPG+0.6

2.6

3.2

APG+1.1

1.7

2.8

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 13 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 19 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 22 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 8 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 5 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 21 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 21 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 15 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 9 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

P+R

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

73%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.0

15.1

RPG

2.4

4.6

APG

2.2

vs NYK (H2H)2 games

PPG

8.5

RPG

4.0

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tristan da Silva	3	11	17%	-29.0%	medium
Jayson Tatum	1	7	64%	+11.4%	low
Kevin Huerter	3	6	20%	-25.7%	medium
Zach LaVine	2	6	17%

Minutes spike makes Riley playable, but books still lean under on the scoring line

Will Riley’s role has expanded sharply, with his last 5 games jumping to 14.2 PPG in 34.6 MPG versus a season mark of 8.8 PPG in 20.2 MPG. The extra usage is real, but the recent scoring surge sits well above his season baseline, and the data shows a stronger case for regression than for chasing the hot streak. Washington is also on a back-to-back, which adds some risk to minute stability, while New York’s defensive profile and 2-day rest support a tougher scoring environment. With multiple Wizards teammates out, his floor for volume is elevated, but the market is still pricing him above his season-level production.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.2(↑ from 8.8)

RPG

3.2(↑ from 2.6)

APG

2.8(↑ from 1.7)

3PM

1.9(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

The Knicks have a defensive rating of 110.34 and a scoring suppression of -1.138, which points to a tougher scoring spot overall. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Will Riley▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	50%	11	✓
Will Riley▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	1	✓
Will Riley▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✗
Will Riley▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✓
Will Riley▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Will Riley▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	50%	12	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST3.5UNDER6%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)7/2035%+16.2% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.418; Scorecard changed +6.0▼

PRA30.5UNDER3%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+24.8% edgeScorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R20.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x11/2055%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A20OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 4x11/2055%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PTS22.5OVER1%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x2/2010%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted -0.684▼

REB4.5UNDER16%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)5/2025%+18.5% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM2.5UNDER12%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%+11.4% edgeLine moved +1.0; Value edge changed -0.043; Odds moved materially▼

R+A6UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Will Riley

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season average is only 8.8 PPG, and the available value data repeatedly favors the under at 15.5 with a large probability edge. The recent 14.2 PPG stretch is real, but it’s still below the line and comes with back-to-back risk plus a tougher defensive setting.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jordan Clarkson	3	3	3	50%	75%
Mikal Bridges	2	3	5	50%	63%
Josh Hart	2	2	3	50%	75%
Dillon Jones	2	2	0	0%	0%
Mohamed Diawara	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.582%HIGH

Season mean is 8.84 PPG, and even with the recent surge to 15.2 over the last 10, the market line of 15.5 is still above his longer-run scoring level. The value data also shows a strong UNDER with 0.772 projected under probability and negative over EV.

reboundsUNDER 3.570%HIGH

He averages 2.56 RPG on the season and 3.3 over the last 5, but the 3.5 line sits above both his season mean and home mean of 2.48. The recent rebounding pop is helpful, but the overall profile still points slightly below this number.

assistsUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

Riley’s season mean is 1.7 APG and his last 10 is 2.4, but that is still not enough to make 2.5 a strong over target. The prop metrics also show a very high season_std of 1.61, so confidence should stay moderate rather than aggressive.

threesUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He’s at 0.95 threes per game for the season and 1.9 over the last 5, but the 1.5 line is above his season baseline. The recent bump is notable, yet the season mean and multiple books still price the under as the better side.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.72 and his recent 5-game mark is only 0.4, both well below a 1.5 threshold. With blocks at 0.1 and steals at 0.6 on the season, this is a low-ceiling combo.

prUNDER 19.573%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 11.36, and even with recent form, 19.5 is a steep ask relative to the long sample. The combo prop carries extra variance, so the safer read is under.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS