AI Model:

Deni Avdija▲

POR · SF

PPG

24.2

RPG

7.0

APG

6.8

L5 PPG

24.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.4

24.2

24.6

RPG+0.4

7.0

7.4

APG+0.8

6.8

7.6

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

DEN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs DEN: 15 pts

PHX

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs PHX: 0 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 22 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 25 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 18 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 32 pts

MIN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MIN: 25 pts

DEN

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs DEN: 23 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

83%

REB

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

PRA

UNDER 38.5FANDUEL

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

24.1

20.1

RPG

6.1

7.1

APG

7.2

5.9

vs BKN (H2H)16 games

PPG

10.8

RPG

6.0

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
P.J. Washington	3	16	72%	+10.1%	medium
Cameron Johnson	4	16	59%	+9.0%	medium
Saddiq Bey	3	14	50%	-1.8%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	35%

Avdija’s all-around role is strong, but the points number looks inflated

Deni Avdija is producing 24.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 6.8 APG on the season, with his last 5 rising to 24.6 PPG and 7.6 APG. Even with that strong form, the market is asking for a high scoring number in a game where his recent away scoring has been lower at 20.1 PPG, and his last 10 points average sits well below season pace at 19.5. The matchup context is mixed: the Nets have a 115.49 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while Avdija has only 10.8125 PPG in 16 career games vs this opponent. With both teams on a back-to-back, volume should still be there, but the strongest edge is on the under for his points line.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.6(→ from 24.2)

RPG

7.4(↑ from 7.0)

APG

7.6(↑ from 6.8)

Key Matchup

The Nets profile is a 115.49 defensive rating with a 100 pace, which does not create an especially fast or soft environment. Avdija’s 16-game history vs this opponent is only 10.8125 PPG, 6 RPG, and 2.375 APG, and there is no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Deni Avdija▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	2/2	70%	18	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	5	✗
Deni Avdija▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Deni Avdija▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	0	✗
Deni Avdija▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Deni Avdija▼	PRA	38.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	25	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A28UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

PTS20UNDER14%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

AST7UNDER15%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER34%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER48%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

FTM8UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

FTA10UNDER8%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

PRA35UNDER39%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

P+R27.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

REB6UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Deni Avdija

Points UNDER 24.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: his season average is 24.2, but his last 10 drops to 19.5 and his away scoring is 20.1. The value props also consistently show the under as the best side, including a strong under probability at this line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Danny Wolf	1	6	0	0%	0%
E.J. Liddell	2	4	0	0%	0%
Jalen Wilson	1	3	6	67%	67%
Ziaire Williams	1	1	0	0%	0%
Nolan Traore	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 24.583%HIGH

His season mean is 24.2, but his last 10 is only 19.5 and his away split is 20.1 PPG. The value data also shows the under is the best side at this line across multiple books.

reboundsOVER 6.558%MEDIUM

He’s at 7.0 RPG for the season, 7.4 RPG over the last 5, and 7.16 RPG at home. The edge is not strong enough to be high confidence, but the profile leans slightly over the 6.5 line.

assistsOVER 6.556%MEDIUM

Avdija’s 6.8 APG season average and 7.6 APG over the last 5 support a modest over lean. His recent assist volume is strong, though the variance is high and confidence should stay medium.

threesOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 2.0 made threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so 1.5 is a playable over. The season baseline is better than the recent window, which keeps this viable.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.42 and his last 10 is 1.2, both below a 1.5 threshold. This is a volatile category, but the baseline slightly favors the under.

praUNDER 38.567%MEDIUM

His season PRA would land at 38.0 (24.2+7.0+6.8), so 38.5 is slightly above his mean. Combo props are higher variance, which makes the under the safer side here.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS