AI Model:

Nolan Traore▲

BKN · PG

PPG

8.5

RPG

1.6

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

8.5

10.2

RPG+0.2

1.6

1.8

APG+0.5

3.7

4.2

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

MIA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIA: 14 pts

MIA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIA: 9 pts

DET

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs DET: 2 pts

MEM

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs MEM: 17 pts

DET

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DET: 2 pts

PHI

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs PHI: 6 pts

POR

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs POR: 4 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 13 pts

NYK

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs NYK: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs SAC: 17 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

88%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

STL

UNDER 0.5

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

70%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

UNDER 3.5

72%

P+A

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

66%

P+R

UNDER 15.5BETMGM

73%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.1

10.2

RPG

2.1

1.6

APG

5.1

4.2

vs POR (H2H)1 games

PPG

4.0

RPG

1.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Reed Sheppard	2	7	58%	+12.2%	low
Bub Carrington	2	6	50%	+2.2%	low
Dyson Daniels	2	6	100%	+62.2%	low
LaMelo Ball	2	6	80%

Points ceiling looks capped, while the under profile stays strongest

Nolan Traore is trending up, with his last 5 rising to 10.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, and 1.6 stocks, but that still sits close to his season baselines rather than far above them. His season scoring average is 8.5 PPG, and the market has already pushed his points line to 12.5, which is well above his mean despite only modest recent volume. The matchup context is mixed: Portland's opponent defense data is available, but there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. With both teams on a back-to-back and his turnover rate staying elevated at 3.4 in the last 5, the most reliable angle remains fading the inflated scoring number.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↑ from 8.5)

APG

4.2(↑ from 3.7)

RPG

1.8(→ from 1.6)

Stocks

1.6(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 117.34 defensive rating, 100 pace, 0.455 scoring suppression, and 0.818 three suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read comes more from the team-level environment than an individual on-ball stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Nolan Traore▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	88%HIGH	2/2	60%	0	✓
Nolan Traore▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	80%	3	✗
Nolan Traore▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✗
Nolan Traore▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	1/2	50%	0	✓
Nolan Traore▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✗
Nolan Traore▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	60%	1	✗
Nolan Traore▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Nolan Traore▼	Turnovers	3.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	50%	2	✓
Nolan Traore▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Nolan Traore▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	1/2	60%	3	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22.5UNDER18%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)3/2015%+34.0% edge▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

PTS14.5UNDER26%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%+21.5% edge▼

REB2.5UNDER22%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+23.7% edge▼

3PA4UNDER3%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

FTM1.5UNDER17%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

FTA2UNDER15%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)6/2030%▼

R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+R13OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

AST5.5OVER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

STL1UNDER34%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%▼

3PM1.5OVER15%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Nolan Traore

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: season scoring is 8.5 PPG, last 10 is 9.5, and the value data shows the under as the best side with roughly a 30.6% edge at draftkings. Even with the recent uptick, the line is still well above his normal production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jrue Holiday	2	3	2	50%	50%
Blake Wesley	1	2	0	0%	0%
Deni Avdija	2	1	7	60%	60%
Toumani Camara	1	1	6	100%	150%
Scoot Henderson	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.588%HIGH

His season mean is 8.5 PPG and even his last 10 sits at 9.5, both well below 12.5. The value data also strongly favors the under at a 30.6% best edge with our_prob_under at 0.832.

reboundsUNDER 2.584%HIGH

He averages only 1.63 rebounds per game for the season and 1.8 over the last 5, so 2.5 is above his typical output. His rebound profile is low-variance and the under is aligned with the season baseline.

assistsUNDER 4.568%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 3.71 and his last 10 is 3.8, both below 4.5. The recent trend is up, but the gap to the line is still meaningful and the under remains the steadier side.

threesUNDER 1.576%HIGH

He averages 1.02 made threes on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, but the season number still points below 1.5. The value data shows a clear under lean with a 12.8% best edge.

stealsUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so this is closer to a coin flip than the other props. With no strong positive edge data provided, the under is the more conservative lean.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

His season average is 0.4 blocks and the last 10 is 0.6, which does not support a strong over case. Variance is high enough that the under is the safer side at this line.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.06 and last 10 is 1.1, both below 1.5. This combo of steals plus blocks has some recent life, but the baseline still points under.

turnoversUNDER 3.572%HIGH

He is at 3.3 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.2 over the last 20, which is close to but still under this number. The recent 3.4 last-5 mark is elevated, so confidence stays moderate.

paUNDER 16.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 12.21, and his recent form is not enough to justify a 16.5 line. Combo props carry more variance, so the under is preferred but with moderate confidence.

prUNDER 15.573%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds is only 10.13, and even the last 5 pace does not get close to this line. This is a stronger under than the assist-based combos because rebounds remain very limited.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Points ceiling looks capped, while the under profile stays strongest

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 12.5 PTS