AI Model:
SF
Collin Sexton▼
CHI · SF
PPG
14.4
RPG
2.0
APG
3.4
L5 PPG
20.2
Last 10 GamesAST
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+5.8
14.4
20.2
RPG+0.4
2.0
2.4
APG0.0
3.4
3.4
SPG-0.3
0.9
0.6
BPG-0.1
0.1
0.0
OVER 2.5 AST
Last 10 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
2.5
1
DET
2026-02-21
2026-02-21 vs DET: 1 ast
0
NYK
2026-02-22
2026-02-22 vs NYK: 0 ast
1
CHA
2026-02-24
2026-02-24 vs CHA: 1 ast
3
POR
2026-02-26
2026-02-26 vs POR: 3 ast
2
MIL
2026-03-01
2026-03-01 vs MIL: 2 ast
2
OKC
2026-03-03
2026-03-03 vs OKC: 2 ast
5
PHX
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs PHX: 5 ast
3
SAC
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs SAC: 3 ast
5
TOR
2026-03-18
2026-03-18 vs TOR: 5 ast
2
CLE
2026-03-19
2026-03-19 vs CLE: 2 ast
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
AST
OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS
83%
PTS
UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS
61%
3PM
OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS
63%
REB
OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS
57%
PRA
UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS
58%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
12.0
18.0
RPG
1.6
3.2
APG
2.1
2.7
vs HOU (H2H)9 games
PPG
21.3
RPG
2.4
APG
4.3
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Shead | 5 | 12 | 63% | +1.7% | medium |
| Cason Wallace | 4 | 9 | 0% | -48.3% | medium |
| AJ Green | 5 | 9 | 38% | -23.3% | medium |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 5 | 9 | 0% |
Sexton’s scoring ceiling is real, but the market still leans too high on his playmaking
Collin Sexton is coming off a volatile stretch: his last 5 games are up to 20.2 PPG, but his last 10 is 15.3 PPG and his last 20 is 13.8 PPG, which matches the broader season baseline much more closely. He’s getting a useful boost from the matchup context, with opponent absences including Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, but his home split is softer at 12.0 PPG and 19.9 MPG compared with 18.0 PPG and 26.8 MPG away. The biggest statistical edge is assists, where his season mean is 3.36 and the best available 2.5 line still offers strong value, while his scoring projection looks closer to the low-to-mid teens than an aggressive over. Overall, this profiles as a steadier assist and three-point angle than a points ceiling chase.
Stat Trends
PPG
20.2(↑ from 14.4)
APG
3.4(→ from 3.4)
RPG
2.4(↑ from 2.0)
Key Matchup
There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data can be identified. The opponent context is still favorable enough to note Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams as absences, which can improve overall offensive conditions.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Collin Sexton▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 83%HIGH | 40% | 2 | ✗ |
Collin Sexton▼ | Points | 13.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 50% | 25 | ✗ |
Collin Sexton▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
Collin Sexton▼ | Rebounds | 1.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
Collin Sexton▼ | PRA | 18.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 50% | 31 | ✗ |
assistsOVER 2.583%HIGH
Season mean is 3.36 APG and the best available value prop shows a 15.2% edge on the over with an our_prob_over of 0.619. His versus-opponent history is also strong at 4.33 APG across 9 games.
pointsUNDER 13.561%MEDIUM
ML Scout Analysis
PRA29.5UNDER12%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 7x3/2015%+34.0% edge▼
PTS22.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x4/2020%+23.9% edge▼
AST3.5UNDER58%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%+36.5% edge▼
P+R19.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x11/2055%▼
P+A19.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼
REB3.5UNDER13%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)3/2015%+28.9% edge▼
3PA6UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼
R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼
STL1UNDER36%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼
FTM2UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼
FTA2UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼
3PM2.5UNDER18%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼
Featured Pick
Collin Sexton
Assists OVER 2.5HIGH
This is the cleanest value on the board: season mean 3.36 APG, last 5 at 3.4 APG, and a 15.2% edge at DraftKings on the over from the value data. His head-to-head average of 4.33 APG across 9 games reinforces that this line is too low relative to his typical distribution.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.