AI Model:

Jabari Smith Jr.—

HOU · PF

PPG

15.6

RPG

6.8

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

18.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.8

15.6

18.4

RPG-0.6

6.8

6.2

APG+0.8

1.8

2.6

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

ORL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ORL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 3 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 17 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 16 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 22 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 18 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 23 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 13 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

61%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

63%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

69%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

P+R

OVER 21.5STAKE

54%

P+A

OVER 16.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.9

RPG

6.9

5.4

APG

2.2

1.3

vs CHI (H2H)7 games

PPG

13.7

RPG

9.1

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Cameron Johnson	4	17	42%	-12.1%	medium
Julius Randle	2	15	42%	-6.9%	low
Trey Murphy III	3	11	67%	+10.2%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	11	57%

Jabari Smith Jr. brings steady minutes and multi-category upside

Jabari Smith Jr. is averaging 15.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists on 35.0 MPG this season, with his last 10 sitting close at 15.9/5.9/2.3, so the profile is fairly stable. His last 5 shows a mild scoring bump to 18.4 PPG, but that comes with a higher-variance sample and should be blended back toward season levels. This matchup is not a shutdown spot based on the provided opponent context, and his home split is slightly better for rebounds, assists, and stocks than his away production. With Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams out, Houston’s rotation context supports his workload, but the prop board still prices him near his season baseline rather than a clear ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.4(↑ from 15.6)

RPG

6.2(↓ from 6.8)

APG

2.6(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent defense shows a 120.29 defensive rating, 100 pace, and elevated scoring/three suppression values, so there is no clear data-driven defensive shutdown signal here. key defenders data is present, but their minutes and impact are limited in the provided sample, so there is no specific defender matchup data to anchor a projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Points	14.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	6	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	P+R	21.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	11	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	P+A	16.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	7	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22.5OVER40%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 7x14/2070%+17.4% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS13.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

REB6.5OVER7%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.142▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 7x14/2070%+6.8% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Jabari Smith Jr.

Points OVER 14.5MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 15.6, his home scoring is 16.9, and he has logged 35-plus minutes consistently. The last 5 trend is up at 18.4 PPG, but the safer read is still a modest over rather than an aggressive smash because his season standard deviation is 5.42 and the market is already close to his true baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Smith	2	6	7	100%	117%
Nikola Vučević	1	5	2	20%	20%
Matas Buzelis	2	4	9	50%	58%
Tre Jones	2	2	5	67%	83%
Patrick Williams	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 14.558%MEDIUM

He is averaging 15.6 PPG on the season and 16.9 PPG at home, both above this 14.5 line. The last 5 at 18.4 is strong, but with a 5.42 season standard deviation, this is a moderate-confidence over rather than a lock.

reboundsUNDER 7.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.83 RPG and his last 10 is 5.9 RPG, both below 7.5. The head-to-head sample is stronger at 9.14 RPG, but the larger season and recent baselines point slightly under the posted line.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.83 APG for the season and 2.3 over the last 10, still below 2.5. Even with a recent uptick, this is a higher-variance category and the season mean supports the under.

threesUNDER 2.569%MEDIUM

He averages 2.23 threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, which sits below a 2.5 threshold. The season_std of 1.44 is sizable, but the recent trend also leans slightly down from his season pace.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 20, which is comfortably above 0.5. This is volatile, but the baseline volume supports an over.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 20, both above 0.5. The role and minutes remain intact, so the over is reasonable even with game-to-game variance.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.75 and last 20 is 1.6, both near or above this level. Variance is meaningful here, but the combo of steals and blocks gives him enough baseline activity to lean over.

prOVER 21.554%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 22.43, which is slightly above this line, and his home split is also supportive. Because combo props add variance, confidence stays modest.

paOVER 16.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists average is 17.43, which clears 16.5. The recent assist uptick helps, but this remains a conservative over given the overall distribution.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS