AI Model:

Kevin Durant—

HOU · SF

PPG

25.6

RPG

5.4

APG

4.5

L5 PPG

24.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.6

25.6

24.0

RPG-0.8

5.4

4.6

APG-0.5

4.5

4.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

OVER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

25.5

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 23 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 29 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 32 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 18 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 25 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 27 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

59%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

56%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

64%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

PRA

UNDER 35.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.2

27.6

RPG

5.7

5.5

APG

4.7

4.0

vs CHI (H2H)13 games

PPG

28.5

RPG

7.3

APG

6.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	3	18	75%	+5.4%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	17	50%	-1.7%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	2	16	59%	+2.8%	low
Saddiq Bey	4	16	54%

Durant’s scoring edge is real, but the assist and rebound props lean modest

Kevin Durant is averaging 25.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.5 APG on the season while playing 36.3 MPG, and his recent scoring has held fairly steady at 24.0 PPG over the last 5 and 22.6 over the last 10. The matchup environment is favorable for offense: the opponent has a 120.29 defensive rating and a 1.124 scoring suppression mark, while Durant has averaged 28.54 PPG, 7.31 RPG, and 6.31 APG in 13 games vs this opponent. With Fred VanVleet out, there is room for his usage to stay elevated, but his recent rebounding and assist production still sit close to season norms rather than surging.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.0(↓ from 25.6)

RPG

4.6(↓ from 5.4)

APG

4.0(↓ from 4.5)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 120.29 defensive rating with a 1.124 scoring suppression, but Durant’s 13-game history vs this opponent is strong at 28.54 PPG, 7.31 RPG, and 6.31 APG. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the edge comes more from his historical production than from an individual defensive assignment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kevin Durant▼	Points	25.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	30%	40	✓
Kevin Durant▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	7	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✗
Kevin Durant▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Kevin Durant▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Kevin Durant▼	PRA	35.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	52	✗

ML Scout Analysis

AST4.5OVER56%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 8x13/2065%+9.4% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

BLK0.5OVER47%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x13/2065%+8.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to HIGH; Value edge shifted +0.247▼

P+A30.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

REB5.5UNDER4%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

PRA37.5UNDER26%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R31UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

PTS25.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

3PM2.5UNDER35%gbt_three_pmAvoid (6/20)10/2050%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Kevin Durant

Points OVER 25.5HIGH

This is the strongest market by both price and projection: DraftKings offers 25.5, and the value data shows a 17.2% edge with 32.96 EV per 100. Durant’s season average is 25.6 PPG, and his vs-opponent scoring jumps to 28.54 PPG, which supports the OVER despite a slightly softer last-5 stretch at 24.0.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Matas Buzelis	2	8	5	14%	21%
Jalen Smith	2	5	5	67%	83%
Patrick Williams	2	4	0	0%	0%
Isaac Okoro	1	2	0	0%	0%
Leonard Miller	1	2	7	75%	88%

pointsOVER 25.570%HIGH

DraftKings is offering 25.5, and the value feed shows a 17.2% edge with an estimated 32.96 EV per 100 on the OVER. Even with his last 5 at 24.0 PPG, his season mean is 25.6 and his vs-opponent scoring rises to 28.54 PPG across 13 games.

reboundsUNDER 5.559%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.41 rebounds and his last 5 is 4.6, so 5.5 sits slightly above both recent and full-season production. The recent trend does not show enough rebound upside to justify an OVER at this number.

assistsUNDER 4.556%MEDIUM

Durant is at 4.5 APG for the season but only 4.0 over his last 5 and 3.9 over his last 10, so the current form points slightly below the line. With no specific defender matchup data, the case is mainly statistical and leans to the UNDER.

threesOVER 2.564%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.29 made threes on the season, 2.1 over the last 5, and 2.29 over the last 20, with several books holding 2.5 as the line. That is close, but his season volume supports a small OVER lean.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Durant averages 1.76 stocks on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, which clears a 1.5 projection. The variance is noticeable, so this is a playable OVER but not a high-confidence one.

praUNDER 35.557%MEDIUM

His season PRA based on 25.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists totals 35.5 exactly, while his recent scoring and playmaking are both below season pace. Because combo props carry extra variance, the UNDER is slightly preferable at this number.

timelineOVER 25.5 PTS