AI Model:

Matas Buzelis▼

CHI · PF

PPG

16.2

RPG

5.6

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

20.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.0

16.2

20.2

RPG+1.6

5.6

7.2

APG-1.0

2.0

1.0

SPG+0.7

0.7

1.4

BPG+0.3

1.5

1.8

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

POR

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs POR: 20 pts

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 20 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 20 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 41 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 22 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 18 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 29 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 19 pts

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 13 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

64%

BLK

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.1

19.6

RPG

6.3

6.0

APG

1.9

2.2

vs HOU (H2H)3 games

PPG

12.3

RPG

4.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mikal Bridges	4	16	60%	+6.7%	medium
AJ Green	4	13	50%	-13.3%	medium
Ausar Thompson	3	12	31%	-15.8%	medium
Brandon Ingram	3	11	58%

Buzelis carries usage upside, but points and threes are priced a bit high

Matas Buzelis is in strong recent form, averaging 20.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 3.2 stocks over his last 5 while logging 33.0 MPG, but his season baseline is more modest at 16.2 PPG and 5.6 RPG. The matchup environment is solid for volume with Houston missing Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, and Chicago is at home after 4 days rest, but his head-to-head sample vs this opponent is only 12.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 1.0 APG across 3 games. Because his last-5 scoring is well above season average and his trend is listed down, the safest angle is to lean under on inflated point and three-point lines while respecting his expanded minutes.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.2(↓ from 16.2)

RPG

7.2(↑ from 5.6)

APG

1.0(↓ from 2.0)

Stocks

3.2(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

The opponent profile shows a defensive rating of 109.67, pace of 100, scoring suppression of -1.283, and three-point suppression of -0.73. key_defenders contains specific defender matchup data, but the information provided is limited to low-minute listings, so the clearest read is the team-level environment plus the listed opponent absences.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Matas Buzelis▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	23	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	4	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	27	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5OVER11%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

PRA28.5OVER7%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

AST2OVER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

BLK1OVER5%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PA9UNDER44%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

P+R27UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

REB7UNDER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

FTM3UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTA4UNDER33%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

3PM3UNDER43%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Matas Buzelis

Assists OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the strongest value position in the data, with a 13.9% edge and an expected value of 28.42 per 100 on DraftKings. His season average is 2.03 APG, so 1.5 is a favorable threshold even after accounting for the recent dip to 1.0 over the last 5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kevin Durant	2	11	28	63%	71%
Amen Thompson	2	10	10	100%	113%
Reed Sheppard	2	2	3	50%	75%
Alperen Sengun	2	2	2	100%	100%
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	1	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 16.2 PPG, and the last 20 is 18.8, so 19.5 sits above his stronger long-run baseline. The recent 20.2 PPG surge is hot, but it is also above season by 24.7%, which raises regression risk.

reboundsOVER 5.558%MEDIUM

He averages 5.6 RPG on the season and 6.9 over the last 10, with 7.2 RPG in the last 5 and 32.8 recent MPG. The line is low enough that his expanded role keeps the over live despite the variance.

assistsOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

The value sheet shows a 13.9% edge on assists OVER 1.5, with our projected over probability at 0.626. His season mean is 2.03 APG, so this line is below his typical production even though the last 5 dipped to 1.0.

threesUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

He averages 2.25 threes per game on the season and 3.1 in the last 10, but the market is still juicing the over and the recent spike is above his baseline. With no positive value on the over and his season mean below 2.5, the under is the safer side.

blocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 BPG on the season and 1.7 to 1.9 in recent rolling windows, which supports this number. His defensive volume is one of his steadiest categories, even if the line is tough.

stocksOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He is at 2.25 stocks per game for the season and 2.8 over the last 10, with 3.2 over the last 5. The category carries some volatility, but his combined steal/block activity has been consistently strong.

prUNDER 24.562%MEDIUM

His season P+R baseline is 21.8, and even with recent scoring and rebounding gains, 24.5 remains above that core level. Combo props are higher variance, so the conservative lean is under.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS