AI Model:

Reed Sheppard▲

HOU · SG

PPG

13.5

RPG

2.8

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesAST

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.9

13.5

15.4

RPG-0.2

2.8

2.6

APG+2.0

3.4

5.4

SPG+0.7

1.5

2.2

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

UNDER 4.5 AST

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

4.5

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 6 ast

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 6 ast

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 3 ast

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 2 ast

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 2 ast

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 3 ast

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 3 ast

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 3 ast

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 4 ast

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 14 ast

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

81%

PTS

UNDER 15.5FANDUEL

60%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

67%

3PM

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

56%

STL

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

52%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.2

14.8

RPG

3.4

3.5

APG

4.6

4.5

vs CHI (H2H)2 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

1.5

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bruce Brown	4	14	50%	+6.8%	medium
Nique Clifford	4	13	56%	+6.8%	medium
Davion Mitchell	2	12	33%	-9.9%	low
John Konchar	3	10	0%

Sheppard’s minutes and playmaking surge make assists the cleanest angle

Reed Sheppard is in strong form, with his last 20 games at 16.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, and 2.5 stocks while logging 30.4 MPG, all above his season averages. The biggest driver is role: with Fred VanVleet out, Sheppard has recently reached 31.1 MPG over the last 10 and posted 5.4 APG over the last 5, even though his points are only modestly above season pace. The matchup adds a little scoring resistance, since Chicago’s opponent profile shows a 120.29 defensive rating and 1.196 three suppression, but his usage and minutes keep him viable across multiple stat types. The main caution is variance, especially in combo props, so the best looks are the ones with a clear statistical edge.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 13.5)

APG

5.4(↑ from 3.4)

STL+BLK

2.8(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Chicago’s opponent profile shows a 120.29 defensive rating, pace of 100, 1.124 scoring suppression, and 1.196 three suppression, so there is some resistance to easy scoring and perimeter production. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed minutes for Tre Jones and Josh Giddey, so the analysis should not assume a true on-ball stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Reed Sheppard▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	1/2	70%	6	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	13	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	3PM	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	4	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	P+A	20.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	19	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA20.5OVER13%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)14/2070%+16.3% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.389; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

REB3.5OVER6%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.048▼

AST3.5OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.042▼

STL1.5UNDER16%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM2.5UNDER33%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)14/2070%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS13.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

P+A20UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Reed Sheppard

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: the value data shows a 21.5% edge at Betrivers and 18.6% at DraftKings, both strongly favoring the Under. Sheppard’s season assist average is 3.36, so even with recent games pushing higher, the underlying baseline still supports the Under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tre Jones	2	5	9	60%	60%
Kevin Huerter	1	3	3	100%	150%
Rob Dillingham	1	3	2	100%	100%
Collin Sexton	1	2	10	60%	80%
Josh Giddey	1	2	2	0%	0%

assistsUNDER 4.581%HIGH

His season mean is 3.36 APG, and the value data shows a strong Under with a 21.5% edge at BetRivers and 18.6% at DraftKings on 4.5 assists. Even with a recent spike to 5.4 APG over the last 5, the season baseline and high variance make the Under the safer side.

pointsUNDER 15.560%MEDIUM

Sheppard’s season mean is 13.52 PPG, below this 15.5 line, and his recent 15.4 PPG is only slightly above it. The last 5 is close enough to the season number that regression risk is real, especially against a defense with 1.124 scoring suppression.

reboundsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

He averages just 2.81 rebounds per game on the season and only 3.1 over the last 10. The recent bump in minutes helps, but the rebound profile still sits below this number.

threesOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

Sheppard averages 2.67 made threes on the season and 3.2 over the last 5, with 3.5 over the last 20, so volume supports an Over look. Chicago’s 1.196 three suppression is a drawback, which keeps confidence moderate rather than strong.

stealsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He is at 1.5 steals per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, which gives him a live path to clear 1.5. The variance is high, but the recent defensive playmaking trend is clearly favorable.

blocksOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

Sheppard averages 0.7 blocks on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so he has enough shot-blocking volume to justify a small Over lean. This is a low-confidence prop because blocks are volatile for a guard.

stocksOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks are 2.13 and recent stocks are 2.4, with last 5 at 2.8, so the combined defensive production has been steady. This is a reasonable over if available, but the standard deviation profile keeps it from being high confidence.

paUNDER 20.566%MEDIUM

Using the provided season means, points plus assists projects near 16.88, well below 20.5. The recent assist surge helps, but combo props carry extra variance and the season baseline still points Under.

timelineUNDER 4.5 AST