AI Model:

Andrew Nembhard—

IND · PG

PPG

17.2

RPG

2.8

APG

7.2

L5 PPG

17.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.2

17.2

17.4

RPG-0.8

2.8

2.0

APG-0.6

7.2

6.6

SPG+0.5

0.9

1.4

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

WAS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs WAS: 5 pts

DAL

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DAL: 22 pts

PHI

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs PHI: 23 pts

CHA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs CHA: 20 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 5 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 17 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 14 pts

PHX

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHX: 23 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 8 pts

SAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs SAS: 25 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

AST

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

56%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

OVER 2.5

57%

P+A

OVER 23.5FANDUEL

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.4

15.8

RPG

2.9

3.1

APG

7.1

7.6

vs ORL (H2H)8 games

PPG

10.9

RPG

2.1

APG

5.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	3	21	56%	+5.8%	medium
Payton Pritchard	4	19	38%	-6.7%	medium
Jalen Brunson	3	17	63%	+14.1%	medium
Jaylen Brown	3	15	53%

Nembhard’s assist volume is steady, but Orlando’s defense and a softer points profile tilt this toward a conservative slate

Andrew Nembhard has been consistent overall, with season averages of 17.2 PPG, 7.2 APG, and 2.8 RPG, but his recent production has cooled slightly in playing time at 26.9 MPG over the last 10. His last-5 scoring is 17.4 PPG and assists are 6.6 APG, which is close to season norm rather than a strong surge, so this is more stability than breakout territory. The matchup context is not especially friendly: Orlando carries a 114.14 defensive rating with a 100 pace and negative three-point suppression, which can cap efficiency and volume. With multiple teammate and opponent absences in the mix, his role should remain relevant, but the market is pricing him close to his season baseline.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.4(→ from 17.2)

APG

6.6(↓ from 7.2)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Orlando’s defense profile shows a 114.14 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative three-point suppression, which suggests a slower, more efficiency-sensitive environment for Nembhard’s scoring and perimeter volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Andrew Nembhard▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	13	✓
Andrew Nembhard▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	14	✓
Andrew Nembhard▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	7	✓
Andrew Nembhard▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Andrew Nembhard▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Andrew Nembhard▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Andrew Nembhard▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	27	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16UNDER17%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R19OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB2OVER24%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA27.5UNDER38%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A24.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)13/2065%▼

3PA6UNDER43%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

AST8OVER37%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM2UNDER53%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 10x6/2030%▼

FTA4UNDER7%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTM3UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Andrew Nembhard

Three Pointers OVER 1.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value spot because his season average is 1.89 made threes and his home split is 2.07, both above the line. The value feed also shows positive edge on the over at 1.5, making it preferable to the more efficient but less attractive points market.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Desmond Bane	3	21	19	50%	56%
Anthony Black	2	6	11	67%	75%
Tristan da Silva	3	3	6	75%	75%
Paolo Banchero	3	3	15	57%	64%
Jevon Carter	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.559%MEDIUM

His season mean is 17.2 PPG, but his vs-opponent scoring is only 10.875 PPG across 8 games, well below this number. Orlando’s 114.14 defensive rating and 100 pace add a modest drag to scoring volume.

assistsOVER 6.556%MEDIUM

He averages 7.2 APG for the season and 7.11 APG at home, with last-5 at 6.6 APG despite reduced minutes. The line is below his season mean, though variance keeps confidence moderate.

reboundsOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

Nembhard’s season mean is 2.8 RPG and he averages 3.0 RPG at home. The recent 2.0 RPG mark is lower, but the line sits beneath his season baseline.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.89 threes per game for the season and 2.07 at home, with recent play at 1.7. Value data also shows positive edge on the over at this line.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.08 and recent is 1.1, both below 1.5. He has just 0.9 SPG and 0.1 BPG on the season, so this is a clear pass to the under.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.8 turnovers over his last 20 and 3.2 away from home, both above a 2.5-type projection. The recent 2.4 mark is still close enough to support an over lean.

paOVER 23.552%MEDIUM

His season scoring-plus-assists profile is 24.4 combined from 17.2 PPG and 7.2 APG, which sits just above this line. Because combo props are higher variance, confidence stays muted.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS