AI Model:

Pascal Siakam▼

IND · PF

PPG

23.8

RPG

6.6

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

24.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.4

23.8

24.2

RPG-1.4

6.6

5.2

APG-0.5

3.9

3.4

SPG-0.1

1.1

1.0

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

OVER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

ATL

2026-01-31

2026-01-31 vs ATL: 25 pts

HOU

2026-02-02

2026-02-02 vs HOU: 27 pts

MIL

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs MIL: 19 pts

TOR

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs TOR: 18 pts

NYK

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs NYK: 30 pts

DAL

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DAL: 30 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 29 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 26 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 22 pts

SAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs SAS: 14 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 20.5FANDUEL

78%

REB

OVER 5.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

56%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

54%

P+R

UNDER 25.5FANDUEL

57%

R+A

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

61%

UNDER 0.5

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.4

24.2

RPG

6.5

6.6

APG

4.2

4.0

vs ORL (H2H)15 games

PPG

24.2

RPG

7.1

APG

4.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	4	25	50%	+1.6%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	19	41%	-7.5%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	18	29%	-19.8%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	16	63%

Siakam’s scoring role remains strong, but the knee tag adds uncertainty

Pascal Siakam is sitting at 23.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 3.9 APG on the season, with his last 10 at 24.0/5.2/3.3, showing fairly steady scoring but a dip in rebounds and assists. The matchup is not an easy one: Orlando’s team defensive profile shows a 114.14 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, which points to a slower, tougher environment for ceiling outcomes. However, the injury report matters a lot here because Siakam is questionable with a right knee issue, and his recent minutes are down to 30.9 from 33.5 season-wide. With that in mind, his points projection is still playable, but the combination props carry more risk than usual.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.2(→ from 23.8)

RPG

5.2(↓ from 6.6)

APG

3.4(↓ from 3.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate. Orlando’s overall profile is tougher than average, with a 114.14 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, which can mute ceiling outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Pascal Siakam▼	Points	20.5	OVER	78%HIGH	1/2	70%	37	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Pascal Siakam▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	4	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	P+R	25.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	43	✗
Pascal Siakam▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	7	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R30.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

P+A28OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

PTS25.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

REB6UNDER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST4UNDER25%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA4UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

FTA6.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA34UNDER29%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PM1UNDER17%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

FTM4UNDER22%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Pascal Siakam

Points OVER 20.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board because Siakam’s season scoring average is 23.8 and his last 10 is 24.0, both above the line. The market data is also aligned, with multiple books showing strong Over value and a best edge of 22.3% at 20.5 on FanDuel, making it the strongest playable angle despite the questionable knee tag.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Paolo Banchero	3	19	22	41%	41%
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	4	6	100%	100%
Tristan da Silva	3	3	5	50%	63%
Jamal Cain	2	3	7	100%	125%
Desmond Bane	3	3	11	50%	50%

pointsOVER 20.578%HIGH

His season mean is 23.8 points and his last 10 is 24.0, both comfortably above 20.5. The value data also shows strong Over support at 20.5 with a 22.3% edge on FanDuel and a 26.2% edge at 19.5 on BetMGM.

reboundsOVER 5.558%MEDIUM

Siakam averages 6.6 rebounds on the season and 6.71 away, so 5.5 is below his normal output. The last 5 dipped to 5.2, so this is playable but not a high-confidence Over.

assistsUNDER 3.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.9, but the last 5 has fallen to 3.4 and the last 10 is 3.3. With the injury question mark and reduced recent minutes, the Under is slightly safer than chasing the Over.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.71 threes on the season, but recent form is softer at 1.1 over the last 10 and 0.6 over the last 5. The Under is more aligned with the short-term trend despite the season baseline.

stocksOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.52 and last 10 is 1.4, so this sits right on the edge. With the standard deviation at 1.3, variance is high, so confidence stays modest.

prUNDER 25.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds combined is 30.4, but the recent rebound dip and questionable status lower the ceiling. Since combo props are inherently more volatile, the Under is the safer lean relative to the posted number.

raUNDER 8.561%MEDIUM

Siakam averages 6.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists for a 10.5 seasonal RA, but the last 5 drops to 8.6 from the reduced rebound output. With recent minutes at 30.9, the Under is slightly preferable.

double_doubleUNDER 0.568%MEDIUM

He is not close to double-double territory based on his season profile of 23.8 points and 6.6 rebounds. Since he has only 6.6 RPG on the year and the last 5 is 5.2 RPG, the Under is the clear side.

timelineOVER 20.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Siakam’s scoring role remains strong, but the knee tag adds uncertainty

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 20.5 PTS