Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 2 | 18 | 75% | +21.6% | low |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 4 | 17 | 41% | -11.8% | medium |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 5 | 11 | 67% | +13.2% | medium |
| Duncan Robinson | 3 | 10 | 25% |
Tristan da Silva’s role is supported by major teammate absences, with Anthony Black, Franz Wagner, and Jonathan Isaac all out, and his minutes have already climbed to 29.2 over the last 10 games. Even so, his recent production has cooled versus that stretch, with the last 5 averaging 9.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.0 assists, all below his last-10 levels of 13.1, 4.5, and 2.2. The matchup adds some scoring resistance too, as Indiana’s opponent profile shows a 120.44 defensive rating and 1.157 scoring suppression. The best angle is to lean on modest volume props rather than expecting a ceiling game.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and Indiana’s overall defensive profile shows a 120.44 defensive rating with 1.157 scoring suppression. That leans slightly against an aggressive scoring projection, especially for an over at a modest line.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tristan da Silva▼ | Points | 11.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 21 | ✓ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 3 | ✓ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 5 | ✗ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 3 | ✓ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 2 | ✓ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | PRA | 18.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 29 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest blend of role and market support: he has a 5.7% edge at DraftKings, the line is only 11.5, and his minutes have risen to 29.2 over the last 10 games with several high-usage teammates out. The main caution is that his last-5 scoring is only 9.4 and his opponent history is 6.4 PPG in 5 games, so it is not a high-confidence over.
| medium |
| Simone Fontecchio | 4 | 10 | 58% | +4.9% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nesmith | 3 | 6 | 8 | 75% | 100% |
| Jarace Walker | 3 | 6 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Andrew Nembhard | 3 | 4 | 8 | 50% | 67% |
| Pascal Siakam | 3 | 2 | 11 | 67% | 67% |
| Ben Sheppard | 3 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
His season mean is 9.6, but teammate absences have helped push his recent minutes to 29.2 and his last-10 scoring to 13.1. The line sits at 11.5, which is below that recent usage level, and the value data shows a 5.7% edge on the over at DraftKings.
He averages 3.7 rebounds on the season and 3.6 over the last 5, both below the 4.5 line. The value sheet also favors the under slightly, with projected under EV positive at DraftKings.
His season assist mean is 1.45 and last-5 is only 1.0, well short of 2.5. Even with a recent last-10 bump to 2.2, this remains a volatile category with a low base rate.
He averages 1.61 made threes on the season and 1.7 over the last 5, which is slightly above the 1.5 line. The price is still workable, though the edge is smaller than the points market.
His season steals rate is 0.9 and recent last-5 is 0.8, so 1.5 is a demanding line. The recent spike in stocks does not fully support crossing that threshold with strong confidence.
He averages 0.4 blocks season-long, but his last-10 mark is 0.5 and his recent games include multiple block efforts. This is a thin edge, so confidence stays modest.
His season stocks average is 1.28 and last-10 is 1.9, giving him a real path to 2 combined defensive stats. Variance is still high, so this is better as a lean than a strong play.
His last-10 PRA profile is stronger than his season line, driven by 13.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. That said, combo props carry more variance, so confidence should stay guarded.