AI Model:

Tristan da Silva▼

ORL · SF

PPG

9.6

RPG

3.7

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

9.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.2

9.6

9.4

RPG-0.1

3.7

3.6

APG-0.5

1.5

1.0

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG0.0

0.4

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 19 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 11 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 23 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 26 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 11 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 13 pts

CHA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHA: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAL: 12 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 2.5BETONLINEAG

66%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

PRA

OVER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.1

9.0

RPG

4.3

5.1

APG

1.6

2.4

vs IND (H2H)5 games

PPG

6.4

RPG

3.2

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	18	75%	+21.6%	low
Bilal Coulibaly	4	17	41%	-11.8%	medium
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	5	11	67%	+13.2%	medium
Duncan Robinson	3	10	25%

Minutes boost keeps Tristan da Silva in play, but efficiency props are capped

Tristan da Silva’s role is supported by major teammate absences, with Anthony Black, Franz Wagner, and Jonathan Isaac all out, and his minutes have already climbed to 29.2 over the last 10 games. Even so, his recent production has cooled versus that stretch, with the last 5 averaging 9.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.0 assists, all below his last-10 levels of 13.1, 4.5, and 2.2. The matchup adds some scoring resistance too, as Indiana’s opponent profile shows a 120.44 defensive rating and 1.157 scoring suppression. The best angle is to lean on modest volume props rather than expecting a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.4(↓ from 9.6)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.7)

APG

1.0(↓ from 1.5)

3PM

1.0(↓ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and Indiana’s overall defensive profile shows a 120.44 defensive rating with 1.157 scoring suppression. That leans slightly against an aggressive scoring projection, especially for an over at a modest line.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tristan da Silva▼	Points	11.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	21	✓
Tristan da Silva▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Tristan da Silva▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✗
Tristan da Silva▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✓
Tristan da Silva▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Tristan da Silva▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Tristan da Silva▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Tristan da Silva▼	PRA	18.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	29	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A15UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Tristan da Silva

Points OVER 11.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of role and market support: he has a 5.7% edge at DraftKings, the line is only 11.5, and his minutes have risen to 29.2 over the last 10 games with several high-usage teammates out. The main caution is that his last-5 scoring is only 9.4 and his opponent history is 6.4 PPG in 5 games, so it is not a high-confidence over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Aaron Nesmith	3	6	8	75%	100%
Jarace Walker	3	6	5	67%	83%
Andrew Nembhard	3	4	8	50%	67%
Pascal Siakam	3	2	11	67%	67%
Ben Sheppard	3	2	3	100%	150%

pointsOVER 11.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.6, but teammate absences have helped push his recent minutes to 29.2 and his last-10 scoring to 13.1. The line sits at 11.5, which is below that recent usage level, and the value data shows a 5.7% edge on the over at DraftKings.

reboundsUNDER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 3.7 rebounds on the season and 3.6 over the last 5, both below the 4.5 line. The value sheet also favors the under slightly, with projected under EV positive at DraftKings.

assistsUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

His season assist mean is 1.45 and last-5 is only 1.0, well short of 2.5. Even with a recent last-10 bump to 2.2, this remains a volatile category with a low base rate.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.61 made threes on the season and 1.7 over the last 5, which is slightly above the 1.5 line. The price is still workable, though the edge is smaller than the points market.

stealsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season steals rate is 0.9 and recent last-5 is 0.8, so 1.5 is a demanding line. The recent spike in stocks does not fully support crossing that threshold with strong confidence.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks season-long, but his last-10 mark is 0.5 and his recent games include multiple block efforts. This is a thin edge, so confidence stays modest.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.28 and last-10 is 1.9, giving him a real path to 2 combined defensive stats. Variance is still high, so this is better as a lean than a strong play.

praOVER 18.554%MEDIUM

His last-10 PRA profile is stronger than his season line, driven by 13.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. That said, combo props carry more variance, so confidence should stay guarded.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS