AI Model:

Ausar Thompson▲

DET · SF

PPG

10.0

RPG

5.8

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

5.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.4

10.0

5.6

RPG-1.8

5.8

4.0

APG-0.5

2.9

2.4

SPG-0.1

1.9

1.8

BPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

SAS

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs SAS: 8 pts

OKC

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs OKC: 11 pts

CLE

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs CLE: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 6 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 10 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 8 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5STAKE

70%

REB

UNDER 6.5STAKE

66%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

68%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

74%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3

60%

PRA

UNDER 18.5FANDUEL

58%

R+A

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.9

7.2

RPG

5.6

5.5

APG

3.5

3.6

vs LAL (H2H)4 games

PPG

11.5

RPG

3.8

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Payton Pritchard	4	25	54%	-16.4%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	16	61%	+5.0%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	14	63%	-2.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	2	13	45%

Ausar’s defensive stock upside is real, but his scoring remains volatile

Ausar Thompson’s season line of 10.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 2.8 stocks shows a strong all-around profile, but his last 5 games have dipped to 5.6 points and 20.4 minutes. The broader trend is still positive with last 10 and last 20 assist and stock production above his season baseline, and his home splits are better than away for points, rebounds, and especially stocks. With Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser out, his role support is intact, but the available lines still price his scoring above his recent form while his defensive categories remain the steadiest path. The matchup data does not point to a clear scoring boost, so projection should stay conservative on points and more supportive on steals/blocks or rebounds in a home environment.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.6(↓ from 10.0)

RPG

4.0(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.4(↓ from 2.9)

Stocks

2.8(→ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 114.99 defensive rating and -0.078 scoring suppression, which does not strongly favor a scoring spike, while the listed key defenders do not create a clear target to attack from the data provided.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ausar Thompson▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	80%	6	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	50%	1	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	STL+BLK	3	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	PRA	18.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x8/1942%▼

FTA2UNDER23%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%▼

P+R15UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/1937%▼

PTS8UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

STL2UNDER30%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK1UNDER13%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)6/1932%▼

FTM0.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

PRA19OVER3%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

REB5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

AST4OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Ausar Thompson

Steals OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fit to his profile: 1.9 steals per game on the season, 2.0 over the last 10, and 2.9 at home. Compared with his volatile scoring, the steals line is the most supported by both season form and split data.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Luka Dončić	2	13	21	42%	45%
LeBron James	2	2	7	75%	88%
Austin Reaves	1	2	0	0%	0%
Deandre Ayton	2	1	8	100%	100%
Jake LaRavia	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.570%HIGH

His season mean is 10.0 points and his last 5 are only 5.6, well below this 13.5 line. Even with home support, the recent minutes and scoring dip make the UNDER the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 6.566%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 rebounds on the season and 5.3 over the last 10, both below 6.5. His last 5 have fallen to 4.0 boards, which reinforces the UNDER.

assistsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

Season assists sit at 2.9 and last 5 at 2.4, so 3.5 is above his usual production. The value data also supports the UNDER on 3.5 with a positive edge.

stealsOVER 1.574%HIGH

He averages 1.9 steals on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, so 1.5 is below his core baseline. His home steal rate is 2.9, making the OVER the strongest defensive-category lean.

blocksOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.9 blocks and his last 10 are 1.2, both comfortably above 0.5. This is a lower-variance way to capture his rim protection.

stocksUNDER 360%MEDIUM

His season stocks are 2.8 and recent form is 2.8 over the last 5, so a projected 3.0 line sits slightly above baseline. The combined defensive output is strong, but not enough to push confidently over 3.0.

praUNDER 18.558%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 18.7 by the listed averages, but recent minutes and scoring have softened, and combo props carry more variance. With the current form, the UNDER is the conservative lean.

raUNDER 8.561%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists, which sums to 8.7 on the season, but recent form is lower on both categories. Given the combo variance and his last 5 dip, this is a thin OVER and safer to stay UNDER.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS