AI Model:
SF
Marcus Smart▼
LAL · SF
PPG
9.5
RPG
2.8
APG
2.8
L5 PPG
10.4
Last 10 GamesAST
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+0.9
9.5
10.4
RPG-1.0
2.8
1.8
APG-0.4
2.8
2.4
SPG+0.6
1.4
2.0
BPG-0.2
0.4
0.2
OVER 2.5 AST
Last 10 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
2.5
7
NOP
2026-03-03
2026-03-03 vs NOP: 7 ast
2
DEN
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs DEN: 2 ast
3
IND
2026-03-06
2026-03-06 vs IND: 3 ast
4
NYK
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs NYK: 4 ast
1
MIN
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs MIN: 1 ast
2
DEN
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs DEN: 2 ast
1
HOU
2026-03-16
2026-03-16 vs HOU: 1 ast
4
HOU
2026-03-18
2026-03-18 vs HOU: 4 ast
4
MIA
2026-03-19
2026-03-19 vs MIA: 4 ast
1
ORL
2026-03-21
2026-03-21 vs ORL: 1 ast
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
AST
OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS
83%
PTS
OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS
61%
REB
OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS
55%
3PM
UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS
57%
STL
OVER 1.5STAKE
58%
STL+BLK
OVER 1.5
56%
AST
OVER 2.5BETMGM
83%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
9.5
8.7
RPG
2.5
1.9
APG
3.3
2.3
vs DET (H2H)12 games
PPG
12.8
RPG
3.4
APG
6.9
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 3 | 17 | 94% | +26.8% | medium |
| James Harden | 3 | 14 | 60% | +10.1% | medium |
| Kevin Durant | 3 | 13 | 94% | +37.9% | medium |
| Ja Morant | 2 | 12 | 33% |
Assist upside stands out, but scoring is more volatile than the market suggests
Marcus Smart is coming in with a season line of 9.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG, while his last-10 assist average has ticked up to 2.9 and his last-5 minutes have climbed to 32.8. The value data is strongest on assists, where the 2.5 line shows a 18.1% edge at DraftKings and similar positive edges across multiple books, making it the clearest plus-EV angle. Scoring is steadier than his recent spike suggests, with season and recent means both sitting at 9.5 points, and the opponent defense profile does not point to an obvious pace boost. The matchup context is helped by opponent absences, but with no specific defender matchup data, the best approach is to lean on role-driven props rather than chasing a big scoring ceiling.
Stat Trends
PPG
10.4(↑ from 9.5)
APG
2.4(↓ from 2.8)
RPG
1.8(↓ from 2.8)
Stocks
2.2(↑ from 1.8)
Key Matchup
No specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 109.53 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -1.314, while opponent absences should still create extra playmaking opportunity.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marcus Smart▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 83%HIGH | 1/2 | 50% |
Marcus Smart▼ | Points | 8.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Marcus Smart▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% |
Marcus Smart▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% |
Marcus Smart▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Marcus Smart▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 60% |
Marcus Smart▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 83%HIGH | 1/2 | 50% |
ML Scout Analysis
P+R11.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼
P+A12UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼
R+A5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼
Featured Pick
Marcus Smart
Assists OVER 2.5HIGH
This is the clearest value on the board, with multiple books showing a strong positive edge and DraftKings at 18.1%. Smart's recent role supports it too: 2.9 assists over the last 10, 3.03 at home, and 3.29 in b2b situations.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.