Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 2 | 13 | 46% | -18.3% | low |
| Nikola Vučević | 2 | 8 | 27% | -32.7% | low |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 3 | 8 | 85% | +10.0% | medium |
| Adem Bona | 3 | 7 | 100% |
Paul Reed is coming in with an uptrend: his last 5 games show 9.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.4 APG and 2.0 stocks in 14.4 MPG, above his season marks of 7.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 1.1 APG. Detroit’s absences create extra opportunity, especially with Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart and Marcus Sasser all out, which supports his role at the center spot. That said, his season averages still sit in modest volume, and his vs. opponent line is only 3.33 PPG, 2.67 RPG and 0.83 APG across 6 games, so this is still more of a role-based projection than a pure breakout spot. The matchup context is not overwhelming enough to force aggression on overs, especially with his production variance.
Key defender data is limited, and one note shows no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed players' minimal minutes. Detroit's opponent context is favorable enough for normal scoring pace, but his historical production vs this opponent is only 3.33 PPG, 2.67 RPG and 0.83 APG in 6 games.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Reed▼ | Points | 7 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 8 | ✓ |
Paul Reed▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
Paul Reed▼ | Assists | 1 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 20% | 1 | ✗ |
Paul Reed▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | — | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Paul Reed▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Paul Reed▼ | Turnovers | 1 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | — | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Paul Reed▼ | PRA | 12.5 | UNDER | 54%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 13 | ✗ |
Paul Reed▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 76%HIGH | — | — | — | — |
This is the cleanest angle because his season average is just 0.21 threes and his last 5 are 0.0 per game with no recent volume. He has not shown a consistent perimeter role, so the under is much more stable than his points or combo props.
| medium |
| Kel'el Ware | 3 | 7 | 67% | +6.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Hayes | 2 | 4 | 7 | 100% | 100% |
| Deandre Ayton | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Luka Dončić | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| LeBron James | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 7.1 PPG and his last 5 are 9.2 PPG, while the team absences support a steadier role. The risk is that his vs. opponent history is only 3.33 PPG across 6 games, so the edge is not strong enough for high confidence.
He averages 4.4 RPG for the season and 4.1 RPG over the last 10, which sits right around this range. Even with Stewart out, his recent rebounding volume has not separated enough to trust an over.
His season mean is 1.13 APG and his last 5 are 1.4 APG, so a low assist line is reachable. Still, the 1.53 season standard deviation makes this a volatile category.
He averages only 0.21 threes per game on the season and 0.1 over the last 5, with just 0.0 fg3mpg in his last 5. This is his clearest under based on volume.
His season average is 1.72 stocks and his last 20 are 2.1, with 2.0 stocks in the last 5. The category has variance, but his defensive event production is strong enough to consider the over.
He has 0.8 turnovers per game in both the season and last 5, and several recent games show low turnover totals. With limited usage, the under is favored.
His season PRA sits at 12.6, so a line around 12.5 is basically fair value. Given combo-prop volatility and only moderate role growth, the under is the safer lean.
He is producing across multiple categories, but his season output of 7.1 points and 4.4 rebounds is still well short of consistent double-double territory. The under remains the better angle.