AI Model:

Paul Reed▲

DET · C

PPG

7.1

RPG

4.4

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.1

7.1

9.2

RPG-0.2

4.4

4.2

APG+0.3

1.1

1.4

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.5

0.9

1.4

OVER 7 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 6 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 10 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 10 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 17 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 15 pts

Over 7

Under 7

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 7

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5

60%

AST

OVER 1

55%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

82%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

UNDER 1

78%

PRA

UNDER 12.5

54%

UNDER 0.5

76%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.3

11.5

RPG

4.6

5.1

APG

1.1

1.0

vs LAL (H2H)6 games

PPG

3.3

RPG

2.7

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	13	46%	-18.3%	low
Nikola Vučević	2	8	27%	-32.7%	low
Tristan Vukcevic	3	8	85%	+10.0%	medium
Adem Bona	3	7	100%

Reed’s minutes and production are trending up, but the matchup and history keep the ceiling in check

Paul Reed is coming in with an uptrend: his last 5 games show 9.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.4 APG and 2.0 stocks in 14.4 MPG, above his season marks of 7.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 1.1 APG. Detroit’s absences create extra opportunity, especially with Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart and Marcus Sasser all out, which supports his role at the center spot. That said, his season averages still sit in modest volume, and his vs. opponent line is only 3.33 PPG, 2.67 RPG and 0.83 APG across 6 games, so this is still more of a role-based projection than a pure breakout spot. The matchup context is not overwhelming enough to force aggression on overs, especially with his production variance.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↑ from 7.1)

RPG

4.2(→ from 4.4)

APG

1.4(↑ from 1.1)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited, and one note shows no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed players' minimal minutes. Detroit's opponent context is favorable enough for normal scoring pace, but his historical production vs this opponent is only 3.33 PPG, 2.67 RPG and 0.83 APG in 6 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Paul Reed▼	Points	7	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	8	✓
Paul Reed▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✓
Paul Reed▼	Assists	1	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	1	✗
Paul Reed▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Paul Reed▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Paul Reed▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Paul Reed▼	PRA	12.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✗
Paul Reed▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA14OVER42%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/1650%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

P+A11UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x5/1631%▼

PTS8.5OVER12%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/1650%▼

FTM1UNDER13%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/1650%▼

FTA1.5OVER3%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/1650%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x6/1638%▼

AST1OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/1638%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK1UNDER45%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x4/1625%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/1650%▼

REB5OVER23%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/1650%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Paul Reed

Three-Pointers UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is just 0.21 threes and his last 5 are 0.0 per game with no recent volume. He has not shown a consistent perimeter role, so the under is much more stable than his points or combo props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaxson Hayes	2	4	7	100%	100%
Deandre Ayton	2	2	2	100%	100%
Luka Dončić	2	1	0	0%	0%
LeBron James	2	0	0	0%	0%
Jarred Vanderbilt	2	0	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 758%MEDIUM

His season mean is 7.1 PPG and his last 5 are 9.2 PPG, while the team absences support a steadier role. The risk is that his vs. opponent history is only 3.33 PPG across 6 games, so the edge is not strong enough for high confidence.

reboundsUNDER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.4 RPG for the season and 4.1 RPG over the last 10, which sits right around this range. Even with Stewart out, his recent rebounding volume has not separated enough to trust an over.

assistsOVER 155%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.13 APG and his last 5 are 1.4 APG, so a low assist line is reachable. Still, the 1.53 season standard deviation makes this a volatile category.

threesUNDER 0.582%HIGH

He averages only 0.21 threes per game on the season and 0.1 over the last 5, with just 0.0 fg3mpg in his last 5. This is his clearest under based on volume.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.72 stocks and his last 20 are 2.1, with 2.0 stocks in the last 5. The category has variance, but his defensive event production is strong enough to consider the over.

turnoversUNDER 178%HIGH

He has 0.8 turnovers per game in both the season and last 5, and several recent games show low turnover totals. With limited usage, the under is favored.

praUNDER 12.554%MEDIUM

His season PRA sits at 12.6, so a line around 12.5 is basically fair value. Given combo-prop volatility and only moderate role growth, the under is the safer lean.

double_doubleUNDER 0.576%HIGH

He is producing across multiple categories, but his season output of 7.1 points and 4.4 rebounds is still well short of consistent double-double territory. The under remains the better angle.

timelineOVER 7 PTS