AI Model:

Tobias Harris▼

DET · PF

PPG

13.1

RPG

5.2

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

13.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.5

13.1

13.6

RPG+0.6

5.2

5.8

APG+1.6

2.4

4.0

SPG-0.5

0.9

0.4

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 9 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 2 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 15 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 21 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 7 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 13 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5FANDUEL

66%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

61%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

70%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

P+A

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.4

13.0

RPG

6.8

5.8

APG

2.4

2.1

vs LAL (H2H)11 games

PPG

15.0

RPG

5.9

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Brown	4	29	31%	-16.7%	medium
Brandon Ingram	3	14	57%	+6.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	13	28%	-24.2%	low
Jalen Johnson	3	12	47%

Tobias Harris set up for a stable but modest scoring night

Harris is averaging 13.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists on the season, with his last 10 showing a slight dip to 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds. His recent assist spike to 4.0 over the last 5 games stands out, but that comes with a very high recent standard deviation, so it is not a clean trend to chase. With Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart out, Harris should keep a steady role, but his home scoring split is only 11.4 PPG and the opponent context does not point to an easy ceiling. The market is also pricing his points around 14.5, which sits above his season baseline and recent form.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.6(→ from 13.1)

RPG

5.8(↑ from 5.2)

APG

4.0(↑ from 2.4)

Stocks

1.2(→ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 114.99 defensive rating and 100 pace, with scoring suppression of -0.078 and three suppression of -0.486. For defender context, there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the matchup is better treated as a neutral-to-slightly restrictive environment rather than a clear attack spot.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tobias Harris▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	14	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✗
Tobias Harris▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%	5	✗
Tobias Harris▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✗
Tobias Harris▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✗
Tobias Harris▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA24UNDER10%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)8/1942%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+A17OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 7x12/1963%▼

3PA3UNDER22%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x5/1926%▼

P+R19OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%▼

REB5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

AST3OVER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

PTS13UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x5/1926%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTM2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x7/1937%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER2%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Tobias Harris

Assists UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board because his season mean is 2.36 APG and his last 10 is 2.4, both well below 3.5. The value props also point to the under with a 12.5% edge and positive EV, making it the strongest play from the provided data.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
LeBron James	2	8	4	40%	40%
Jake LaRavia	2	2	0	0%	0%
Luka Dončić	1	1	2	0%	0%
Austin Reaves	1	1	3	100%	150%
Deandre Ayton	2	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 14.566%MEDIUM

His season average is 13.1 PPG and his last 10 is 12.7, while the listed line is 14.5. The recent 4.0 APG stretch does not directly support a points over, and his home scoring split is only 11.4 PPG.

reboundsUNDER 5.561%MEDIUM

He averages 5.2 RPG on the season and 5.1 over the last 10, which is right around this number but not clearly above it. With modest variance and a home split of 6.8 RPG but season baseline below 5.5, the under is the more conservative side.

assistsUNDER 3.570%HIGH

Season assists are 2.4 APG and last 10 is also 2.4, so 3.5 is above his typical output. The value data also supports under with a 12.5% edge and 74.1% projected under probability at this line.

threesUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.25 made threes and only 0.9 over the last 10, which is below the 1.5 line. The season profile suggests he is more of a near-match than a strong over.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.26 and recent mean is 1.0, both below 1.5. Recent variance is high enough to avoid an over lean here.

paUNDER 17.564%MEDIUM

Points plus assists combine his 13.1 PPG and 2.4 APG for a season mean around 15.5, and his last 10 profile is similar. Even with increased ball-handling, the 17.5 line sits above his usual range.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS