AI Model:

Kawhi Leonard▼

LAC · SG

PPG

28.4

RPG

6.3

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

32.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.2

28.4

32.6

RPG-1.1

6.3

5.2

APG-0.8

3.6

2.8

SPG-0.2

2.0

1.8

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 27.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

27.5

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 23 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 29 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 30 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 28 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 29 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 45 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 28 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 31 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs DAL: 34 pts

Over 27.5

Under 27.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

72%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

70%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 39.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

29.9

29.4

RPG

5.6

7.4

APG

4.0

3.6

vs MIL (H2H)6 games

PPG

20.7

RPG

6.7

APG

4.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaden McDaniels	3	18	67%	+16.2%	medium
Kevin Durant	3	14	31%	-25.5%	medium
Toumani Camara	3	13	50%	-14.1%	medium
Stephon Castle	2	13	63%

Kawhi's scoring line looks high, but the 3-ball stays live

Kawhi Leonard is producing 28.4 PPG on the season and 30.2 PPG over his last 10, but his trend is marked down and his last-5 scoring spike to 32.6 PPG sits well above season form. He is questionable with a left ankle sprain, which adds risk to minutes and efficiency, and the matchup data also shows 20.67 PPG in 6 games vs this opponent, well below his season scoring level. With teammate and opponent absences potentially shaping usage, the best read is that his points are more likely to land below the market than beat it, while his three-point volume remains the cleaner path.

Stat Trends

PPG

32.6(↓ from 28.4)

RPG

5.2(→ from 6.3)

APG

2.8(↓ from 3.6)

3PM

3.8(↑ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

The opponent profile shows a 116.21 defensive rating and 0.2 scoring suppression, which is a modest drag on scoring output. Kawhi also has 20.67 PPG in 6 games vs this opponent, and the provided key defender data does not offer specific defender matchup data beyond no meaningful defender detail to lean on.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kawhi Leonard▼	Points	27.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	20%	28	✗
Kawhi Leonard▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	60%	5	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	3	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%	1	✗
Kawhi Leonard▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	80%	4	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	20%	2	✗
Kawhi Leonard▼	PRA	39.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	2/2	60%	36	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST3.5OVER8%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS28.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%+9.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB6.5UNDER21%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%+5.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA41.5UNDER23%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%+17.5% edge▼

P+R34.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A32UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%▼

3PM2.5UNDER1%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

STL1.5UNDER31%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Kawhi Leonard

Points UNDER 27.5HIGH

This line is above his exact season average of 28.4 but the best available value data strongly favors the UNDER, with multiple books showing a large negative edge on the over and a projected under win rate around 74% to 78%. The questionable left ankle sprain plus his 20.67 PPG head-to-head mark vs this opponent make the UNDER the clearest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ousmane Dieng	2	5	3	50%	75%
Taurean Prince	2	4	8	75%	100%
Pete Nance	2	3	0	0%	0%
AJ Green	1	2	3	33%	50%
Jericho Sims	2	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 27.582%HIGH

His season mean is 28.4, but the matchup history is only 20.67 PPG in 6 games vs this opponent and the model value data shows strong UNDER edges at 27.5 across books. The questionable ankle tag adds another layer of downside to a high points number.

reboundsUNDER 7.574%HIGH

He averages 6.3 rebounds on the season and 6.3 over the last 10, both below 7.5. Recent form and the season baseline both point to an UNDER unless he significantly outperforms his normal board rate.

assistsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

Kawhi's season assist average is 3.6, but recent production is only 3.3 over the last 10 and 2.8 over the last 5. This is close to the line, but the recent dip supports a slight UNDER lean.

threesOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.65 made threes on the season and 2.8 over the last 10, with 3.8 over the last 5. The volume trend is favorable, and the market line of 2.5 is reachable even without a major scoring ceiling game.

stealsOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0 steals on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, both above the 1.5 line. His defensive counting stats are consistently strong enough to support the OVER.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

His season block average is 0.4 and his last 10 are only 0.1, so 0.5 is a tough ask. The recent shot-blocking output is far below the line.

stocksOVER 1.570%HIGH

He averages 2.44 stocks on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, both above 1.5. That gives this defensive combo prop a solid floor compared with his more volatile scoring and assist outcomes.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

His last 5 turnover average is 2.4 and his last 20 is 2.1, which sit above a 2.0 baseline. The recent game log also shows multiple 2+ turnover outings, so the OVER is playable but not a premium confidence spot.

praUNDER 39.576%HIGH

His season rates of 28.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists sum to a profile that is close but not comfortably above 39.5, especially with the injury concern. Combo props carry more variance, so the UNDER is the safer angle.

timelineUNDER 27.5 PTS