AI Model:

Kyle Kuzma▲

MIL · PF

PPG

13.1

RPG

4.5

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.5

13.1

10.6

RPG-1.7

4.5

2.8

APG0.0

2.6

SPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 10 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 16 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 33 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 5 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 11 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 8 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 3 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 11 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 20 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

STL

OVER 0.5

52%

BLK

UNDER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2

55%

P+R

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

P+A

OVER 14.5FANDUEL

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.6

11.4

RPG

3.8

4.0

APG

3.9

1.8

vs LAC (H2H)12 games

PPG

17.8

RPG

6.2

APG

1.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Paul George	3	14	50%	-15.8%	medium
Miles Bridges	4	11	46%	-13.4%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	10	44%	-11.6%	medium
Kon Knueppel	3	10	70%

Kuzma’s role is intact, but the efficiency path is shaky

Kyle Kuzma comes in with season averages of 13.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.6 assists over 26.4 MPG, but his last-5 has dipped to 10.6 points and 2.8 rebounds. The injury report matters here: Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.6 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 5.4 APG) and Kevin Porter Jr. (17.4 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.2 RPG) are out, which should keep Kuzma’s usage relevant even with his recent cold stretch. The matchup is not a clean scoring boost, as LA’s opponent profile shows a 113.11 defensive rating with a 100 pace and team scoring suppression at -0.502, so the safer angle is leaning toward his modest lines rather than chasing ceiling. His home split is better than his away split, but this game is on the road, and his away scoring drops to 11.4 PPG with 23.6 MPG.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(↓ from 13.1)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 4.5)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

Derrick Jones Jr. is listed as a key defender, but the data does not provide a meaningful volume matchup; no specific defender matchup data beyond that. The opponent profile is more useful here: LA has a 113.11 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and a team scoring suppression of -0.502, which points to a controlled scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Kyle Kuzma▼	Points	11.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	20%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Kyle Kuzma▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	50%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%
Kyle Kuzma▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%
Kyle Kuzma▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Kyle Kuzma▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	50%

ML Scout Analysis

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R17.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

P+A16.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Kyle Kuzma

Points OVER 11.5MEDIUM

The strongest angle is the modest scoring line at 11.5, which sits below his 13.1 season average and 13.5 last-10 average. The absences of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. should preserve Kuzma’s role, and this prop also has the clearest support from the available sportsbook market.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsOVER 11.558%MEDIUM

He averages 13.1 PPG on the season and 13.5 over the last 10, while the sportsbook line sits at 11.5. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. out, Kuzma should still have enough usage to clear a modest scoring number despite the recent dip.

reboundsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

Kuzma’s season rebound average is 4.5, and his home split is 3.8 with 27.3 MPG. The line is only 3.5, so even with recent rebounds at 2.8 over the last 5, the season baseline still supports the over.

assistsOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.6 APG and his recent mean is 2.8, which is right on the edge of the posted 2.5 line. The context of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. being out gives his playmaking some extra room.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.23 made threes on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, but the 1.5 line is above his season mean. His away 3PM average is only 1.0, and the recent hot stretch looks stronger than the full-season baseline.

stealsOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The confidence stays modest because steals are volatile.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.4 blocks per game on the season, below the 0.5 threshold. Even though he has 0.6 blocks over the last 5, that’s a small sample and still not enough to override the season rate.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season combined steals+blocks profile is 1.0 per game from the listed averages, and the recent stock trend is 1.2 over the last 10. That is still short of a 1.5-style threshold, and the category is inherently volatile.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He has 2.1 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.9 over the last 20, with 2.2 in the last 5. That recent turnover frequency supports an over on a 2.0 line if the book posts one.

prUNDER 15.557%MEDIUM

His season points+rebounds profile is 17.6 using 13.1 PPG and 4.5 RPG, but the recent rebound drop to 2.8 hurts this combo. Combo props carry more variance, and the recent form is not strong enough to push confidence higher.

paOVER 14.553%MEDIUM

He averages 15.7 points+assists by season baseline, and the line is only 14.5. The projection is helped by the absences of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr., though the recent scoring dip keeps confidence moderate.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS