AI Model:

Adem Bona▲

PHI · C

PPG

5.0

RPG

4.5

APG

0.4

L5 PPG

8.2

Last 10 GamesREB

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

5.0

8.2

RPG+2.3

4.5

6.8

APG-0.2

0.4

0.2

SPG+0.6

0.4

1.0

BPG+0.5

1.3

1.8

UNDER 5.5 REB

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

5.5

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 6 reb

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 5 reb

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 7 reb

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 7 reb

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 3 reb

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 10 reb

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 6 reb

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 3 reb

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 10 reb

UTA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs UTA: 5 reb

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

PTS

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

BLK

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

62%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.5

RPG

5.6

5.2

APG

0.5

0.9

vs OKC (H2H)2 games

PPG

9.0

RPG

5.5

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Evan Mobley	4	14	68%	-1.3%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	9	65%	-0.1%	medium
Nic Claxton	3	9	100%	+39.9%	medium
Collin Murray-Boyles	3	8	29%

Bona’s block-heavy role gives him a live floor, but points remain capped

Adem Bona has been trending up, with his last 5 at 8.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 1.8 BPG compared to season marks of 5.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 1.3 BPG. His minutes have also climbed from a season average of 17.8 to 21.6 over the last 5 and 23.0 over the last 10, helped by the absences of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Dominick Barlow. The matchup data is solid enough to keep him relevant, and his 2-game history vs this opponent sits at 9.0 PPG and 5.5 RPG in 22.5 MPG. Still, the market is pricing his rebounds and points near or above his recent production, so the cleaner edge is on the under in the lower-variance rebound market.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.2(↑ from 5.0)

RPG

6.8(↑ from 4.5)

BPG

1.8(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

He has 2 games of head-to-head data vs this opponent, averaging 9.0 PPG and 5.5 RPG in 22.5 MPG. The listed defensive data includes no specific defender matchup data beyond the available key defender entries, so the best read is the overall opponent context rather than a single matchup target.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Adem Bona▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	40%	5	✓
Adem Bona▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Adem Bona▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Adem Bona▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✓
Adem Bona▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA14UNDER17%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x7/1839%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A8UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x6/1833%▼

AST1UNDER52%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)5/1828%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

FTA2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)5/1828%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/1844%▼

P+R12UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x7/1839%▼

PTS6UNDER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/1839%▼

REB5UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x7/1839%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK1UNDER46%gbt_blocksAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/1828%▼

FTM1UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)8/1844%▼

Featured Pick

Adem Bona

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season mean is 4.48 RPG, and the value section shows positive EV on the under at 5.5 across multiple books. Even though his recent rebounding has improved to 6.8 over the last 5, the season baseline, plus the conservative over-bias rule, still point to the under as the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Isaiah Hartenstein	2	7	4	33%	33%
Chet Holmgren	2	5	2	17%	17%
Branden Carlson	1	1	2	100%	100%
Jalen Williams	2	1	7	67%	83%
Aaron Wiggins	2	1	5	67%	83%

reboundsUNDER 5.578%HIGH

His season mean is 4.48 RPG and the value data shows the UNDER is +EV at multiple books, including a 8.8% edge at DraftKings and 11.8% at betmgm on 6.5. Even with the recent bump to 6.2 RPG over the last 10, the market line at 5.5 is above his season baseline and the data favors caution.

pointsUNDER 6.566%MEDIUM

He is averaging 5.0 PPG for the season, and the recent 7.5 PPG last 10 is only modestly above that, not enough to override the longer sample. His points lines are clustered around 6.5 to 7.5, which sits above his season mean and makes the under the more conservative side.

blocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 BPG on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, so 1.5 is a reasonable ceiling rather than a median outcome. The block market is volatile, and while his recent 1.8 over the last 5 is strong, the season profile still leans slightly below this number.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.7 and the last 5 is 2.8, with 1.8 over the last 10, so he has clear combined defensive-event volume. This is a higher-variance category, but the recent production supports the over if the line is set around 1.5.

prUNDER 13.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 9.5 combined, while even the recent stretch is only 14.4 using last 5 averages. The line is slightly above his recent form and should be treated conservatively given the over-bias warning on combo props.

timelineUNDER 5.5 REB