AI Model:

Chet Holmgren▼

OKC · PF

PPG

17.2

RPG

9.0

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

16.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.4

17.2

16.8

RPG-0.6

9.0

8.4

APG-0.9

1.7

0.8

SPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

BPG-0.9

1.9

1.0

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

TOR

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs TOR: 7 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 19 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 28 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BKN: 11 pts

WAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs WAS: 18 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

58%

REB

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

63%

BLK

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

61%

P+R

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.8

15.5

RPG

12.4

7.6

APG

2.1

1.6

vs PHI (H2H)4 games

PPG

25.8

RPG

7.3

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	18	45%	-9.8%	medium
Alperen Sengun	3	17	42%	-13.2%	medium
Harrison Barnes	4	16	44%	-11.6%	medium
Bam Adebayo	2	14	59%

Holmgren’s rebounding edge stands out despite a quieter scoring trend

Chet Holmgren’s season line sits at 17.2 points and 9.0 rebounds in 29.3 MPG, but his recent scoring has eased to 16.8 over the last 5 and 16.1 over the last 20, reinforcing a slight downtrend. The strongest current angle is on the glass: his home split is 12.4 rebounds per game, and the value data shows multiple +EV rebounding overs, including a 6.5% edge at 7.5 rebounds. Philadelphia is missing Joel Embiid and Paul George, which matters for the overall frontcourt environment, while no specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders. Given the depressed assist volume and only modest recent scoring, rebounds are the clearest prop to target.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.8(↓ from 17.2)

RPG

8.4(↓ from 9.0)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.7)

Stocks

1.8(↓ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no reliable one-on-one assignment edge to project. The opponent context does show Joel Embiid out, which helps overall interior conditions, but the clearest actionable matchup note remains the absence-driven environment rather than a named defender.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Chet Holmgren▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	17	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	90%	9	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%	3	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	5	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	26	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER53%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

P+A17.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

PRA24.5UNDER0%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

BLK1.5UNDER41%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

3PM1.5UNDER45%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)4/2020%+10.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB8.5UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%▼

Featured Pick

Chet Holmgren

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the dataset: season average 8.98 rebounds, home average 12.4 rebounds, and a 6.5% edge at multiple books on the over. The line is simply too low versus his home rebounding profile, and the provided value data supports attacking it.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Adem Bona	2	6	0	0%	0%
Dominick Barlow	2	6	0	0%	0%
Andre Drummond	2	6	5	40%	50%
Tyrese Maxey	1	1	5	33%	50%
Quentin Grimes	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 17.25, but the recent trend is down at 16.5 over the last 10 and 16.1 over the last 20. With the market sitting at 16.5 and the under showing the better value profile in the provided data, the under is the safer lean.

reboundsOVER 7.570%HIGH

His season rebound average is 8.98 and his home split jumps to 12.4 RPG, which is a strong indicator for this matchup. The value data shows a 5.6% edge at DraftKings and 6.5% edge at other books on the over, making this the best-supported play.

assistsUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages only 1.67 assists for the season and just 0.8 over the last 5, so the recent distribution is even lighter than normal. Despite teammate absences, his assist role has not shown enough stability to justify an over at this number.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.21 threes per game on the season, but recent output is only 1.0 over the last 5 and his last 10 remains just 1.0. With modest volume and no clear edge in the provided value data, the under is preferred.

blocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 blocks on the season and 1.6 over the last 20, so 1.5 is below his typical rim-protection level. The recent last-5 dip to 1.0 keeps confidence in check, but the season baseline still supports the over.

stocksUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.41, while the last 5 is 1.8 and the last 10 is 2.3, both below a strong over threshold. Combo-style volatility is high here, so the conservative side is the under.

prUNDER 24.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 26.2, but the recent scoring softness and the common combo-prop volatility make this less attractive than the rebounding straight line. This is a close call, so the under gets the nod on caution.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Holmgren’s rebounding edge stands out despite a quieter scoring trend

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 16.5 PTS