AI Model:

Justin Edwards—

PHI · SF

PPG

6.3

RPG

1.7

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

18.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+11.9

6.3

18.2

RPG+0.5

1.7

2.2

APG+1.0

1.4

2.4

SPG+0.9

0.9

1.8

BPG+0.4

0.2

0.6

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 12 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 19 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 32 pts

UTA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs UTA: 8 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

OVER 1.5BETMGM

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

64%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

PRA

UNDER 17.5BETMGM

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.6

8.5

RPG

2.0

1.8

APG

1.8

1.6

vs OKC (H2H)3 games

PPG

18.7

RPG

4.3

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Rollins	2	6	56%	+10.6%	low
James Harden	2	6	79%	+26.4%	low
DeMar DeRozan	2	5	0%	-45.0%	low
Brandon Ingram	2	5	75%

Minutes bump keeps Edwards live, but the market still leans too high on volume-based props

Justin Edwards’ recent production has jumped with his minutes, as his last 5 games show 18.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG, and 2.4 APG versus a season line of 6.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, and 1.4 APG. That said, his season baseline is still low, and the last-10 output (13.1 PPG) is already well above his full-season mean, so some regression risk remains. Philadelphia has multiple teammate absences, including Joel Embiid and Paul George, which supports a larger role, but his prop landscape is still driven more by opportunity than stable high-usage creation. The safest angles are the ones that align with his established volume and the current sportsbook prices, especially threes and points unders at inflated lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.2(↑ from 6.3)

RPG

2.2(↑ from 1.7)

APG

2.4(↑ from 1.4)

3PM

2.6(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available from the provided key_defenders list beyond the named Thunder players and their limited minutes. The opponent context shows Oklahoma City allowing a 107.54 defensive rating with a pace of 100 and a 0.786 three suppression mark, which is not an obvious boost for his scoring ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Justin Edwards▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	8	✓
Justin Edwards▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Justin Edwards▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✓
Justin Edwards▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	50%	2	✗
Justin Edwards▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Justin Edwards▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Justin Edwards▼	PRA	17.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	11	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x5/1339%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x5/1339%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

PTS11UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)6/1346%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST2UNDER13%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

3PM1UNDER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x6/1346%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA13UNDER28%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

REB2UNDER42%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x4/1331%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

STL1UNDER39%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

3PA4UNDER32%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/1339%▼

FTA1UNDER26%gbtAvoid (7/20)4/1331%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Justin Edwards

Threes UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board: the value_props data shows the under has a 10.1% to 10.8% edge depending on book, with projected under probability at 59.6%. His season average of 1.09 threes per game is below the line, and the recent spike to 2.0 in the last 10 is not enough to ignore the stronger season baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Williams	2	4	6	43%	43%
Aaron Wiggins	2	3	3	50%	75%
Cason Wallace	2	2	0	0%	0%
Isaiah Hartenstein	2	1	2	100%	100%
Chet Holmgren	2	1	6	100%	125%

pointsUNDER 11.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is only 6.3 PPG, and the last-10 mark of 13.1 PPG is already elevated versus that baseline. The recent surge is real, but the edge is thin and the higher recent scoring makes regression a concern.

reboundsUNDER 2.568%MEDIUM

He averages just 1.7 RPG on the season and 1.9-2.0 in the home/away splits, which sits below this line. Recent games have been volatile, and the season profile supports the under.

assistsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.4 APG, but the last-5 and last-10 windows are 2.4 and 2.8 APG, showing the role is expanded right now. The market line of 1.5 is modest relative to that recent usage.

threesUNDER 1.574%HIGH

He averages 1.09 threes per game on the season, and the value data shows a 0.101-0.108 edge on the under at 1.5. Even with a recent uptick, the under remains the cleanest +EV angle.

blocksUNDER 0.564%MEDIUM

His season block average is only 0.2, so clearing 0.5 requires an outlier game. The recent 0.6 in the last 5 is better, but still not enough to make the over the preferred side.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.09 stocks on the season and 2.1 in the last 10, with 2.4 in the last 5. That recent defensive activity is strong enough to justify a cautious over lean.

praUNDER 17.558%MEDIUM

Combo props carry extra variance, and his season-based production is far below this number. The recent surge helps, but the combination of low season means and compounding volatility keeps the under safer.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS