AI Model:

Bam Adebayo▼

MIA · C

PPG

20.2

RPG

9.9

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

36.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+16.6

20.2

36.8

RPG+1.1

9.9

11.0

APG-0.5

2.9

2.4

SPG+0.9

1.1

2.0

BPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

OVER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

21.5

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 24 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 23 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 21 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 24 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 24 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 83 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 20 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 28 pts

HOU

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs HOU: 32 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

54%

OVER 1.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 32.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

P+A

OVER 24.5FANDUEL

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

26.3

23.1

RPG

9.2

11.6

APG

2.9

3.2

vs SAS (H2H)11 games

PPG

22.1

RPG

9.8

APG

4.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Wendell Carter Jr.	5	35	71%	+19.5%	medium
Neemias Queta	4	17	67%	+23.0%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	16	42%	-10.4%	low
Paolo Banchero	5	16	50%

Bam’s usage spike keeps him in play, but the rebound and combo numbers are priced fairly

Bam Adebayo is carrying a massive recent scoring surge, averaging 36.8 PPG over his last 5 and 30.0 over his last 10, well above his season mark of 20.2. He’s also playing heavier minutes lately at 39.6 MPG in the last 5, and with Terry Rozier out, his offensive role remains elevated. Still, his season baseline and the heat map of his prop prices suggest some regression risk, especially on rebounds and combo props where the market is already adjusted. The best angle is to lean on the line that still offers clear value relative to his expanded role, while staying cautious on volatile overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

36.8(↑ from 20.2)

RPG

11.0(↑ from 9.9)

APG

2.4(↓ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

Victor Wembanyama is listed among the key defenders, and his presence is the main matchup variable in this game. Beyond that, there is no specific defender matchup data for the other opposing players, so the best read comes from the team-level defense and Bam’s recent role rather than naming assumptions.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bam Adebayo▼	Points	21.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	18	✗
Bam Adebayo▼	Rebounds	10.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Bam Adebayo▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Bam Adebayo▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Bam Adebayo▼	P+R	32.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	21	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	P+A	24.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB10.5UNDER23%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%+15.5% edge▼

P+R35UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

PTS20.5UNDER14%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)12/2060%▼

3PM1.5UNDER25%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

3PA7UNDER44%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

PRA34.5UNDER19%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

P+A28UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

FTA7.5UNDER12%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

AST3.5UNDER28%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER52%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)6/2030%▼

FTM6UNDER28%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Bam Adebayo

Assists OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value relative to the data: Bam’s season average is 2.9 APG, his last-10 average is also 2.9, and the value table shows positive edge on the over at 2.5 across multiple books. With Terry Rozier out, his playmaking load should remain steady enough to support this number.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Victor Wembanyama	2	14	24	45%	50%
Harrison Barnes	2	3	0	0%	0%
Stephon Castle	2	2	8	75%	100%
Luke Kornet	1	2	0	0%	0%
Julian Champagnie	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 21.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 20.2 PPG, but he’s at 30.0 over the last 10 and 36.8 over the last 5 with 39.6 MPG lately. The role bump from Terry Rozier being out supports scoring volume, though the recent spike is extreme enough to keep confidence moderate.

reboundsUNDER 10.561%MEDIUM

Bam’s season rebound average is 9.9 and his last-20 is 10.2, so 10.5 sits just above his typical output. Even with strong recent games, the market is pricing this close to his ceiling, making the under slightly preferable.

assistsOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.9 assists on the season and 2.9 over the last 10, so 2.5 is below his mean. The value props data also supports the over at this number, with positive edge on multiple books.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Bam averages 1.75 threes per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, with 2.0 at home. The recent volume is solid, but his standard deviation is high, so this stays a lower-confidence over.

stealsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals on the season, and 1.5 is above that baseline. Recent steals production has been strong, but the line is still aggressive enough to lean under in a conservative approach.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season block average is 0.7, which clears 0.5, and he has 0.8 over the last 10. This is a modest edge play, but variance is high and confidence should remain capped.

stocksOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

Bam’s season stocks average is 1.82, and the last 10 is 2.8, indicating strong defensive event production. Because stocks are volatile and the prop is combo-heavy, this is only a medium-to-low confidence look.

turnoversOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season turnover average is 1.4, and his recent workload has climbed with 36.6 MPG over the last 10. The increased usage supports a slight lean to the over if this market appears.

prUNDER 32.559%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds production is far more in line with the low-30s than a sustained push above 32.5, especially with rebounds near his season norm and scoring likely to regress from the last-5 spike. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the safer side.

paOVER 24.562%MEDIUM

Bam averages 20.2 points and 2.9 assists, which together create a season baseline near this range, and his recent usage is well above normal. The line is playable over, but the points-heavy recent run is doing most of the lifting.

timelineOVER 21.5 PTS