AI Model:

Julian Champagnie▲

SAS · PF

PPG

11.1

RPG

5.8

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

11.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.3

11.1

11.4

RPG-1.4

5.8

4.4

APG+0.1

1.5

1.6

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 16 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 20 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 8 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 9 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 7 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 17 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 14 pts

IND

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs IND: 10 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 2

66%

P+R

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

P+A

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.9

10.9

RPG

5.3

4.3

APG

1.5

1.8

vs MIA (H2H)4 games

PPG

4.8

RPG

3.8

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	14	63%	+6.5%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	14	40%	-13.5%	medium
Jake LaRavia	4	13	50%	-3.5%	medium
Desmond Bane	2	11	54%

Champagnie’s scoring leans to the under despite steady minutes

Julian Champagnie has been stable overall, with season averages of 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists across 27.7 MPG, while his last 10 and last 5 scoring marks sit close to that range at 11.2 and 11.4. The matchup is not especially inviting for offense: Miami carries a 117.07 defensive rating and his prior history vs this opponent is muted at 4.75 PPG in 22.25 MPG across 4 games. With his season scoring mean already below the common 10.5 line and the value data showing an under lean on points, the strongest angle is fading his scoring volume rather than chasing a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.4(→ from 11.1)

RPG

4.4(↓ from 5.8)

APG

1.6(→ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to target directly. Miami’s team defense profile is solid enough to keep this from being a breakout scoring spot, and his 4-game history vs this opponent has been well below his season scoring level.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Julian Champagnie▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	50%	3	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	8	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	P+A	12.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST2UNDER10%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x3/2015%▼

3PM2.5UNDER20%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

PRA19UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

REB6UNDER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

3PA6UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%▼

P+A12.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

FTA0.5UNDER6%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

P+R16.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Julian Champagnie

Points UNDER 10.5HIGH

This is the cleanest read on the board: his season average is 11.1 points, but his results vs this opponent are only 4.75 PPG across 4 games and the value data repeatedly points to the UNDER at 10.5. The market has already priced his role fairly, and there is no strong injury-driven usage boost in the provided data.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Pelle Larsson	2	7	2	50%	50%
Simone Fontecchio	1	3	6	67%	100%
Andrew Wiggins	2	2	0	0%	0%
Davion Mitchell	2	1	3	100%	150%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.578%HIGH

Season mean is 11.1, but his head-to-head vs this opponent is only 4.75 PPG over 4 games and the value data shows a 10.5 line with an UNDER edge at multiple books. This is a better spot to trust the lower-scoring history than the slightly hotter last-5 form.

reboundsUNDER 5.556%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 rebounds on the season and 5.5 over the last 10, so this is close to fair market pricing. With no clear edge in the value data and away/home splits not showing a strong over case, the under is the slightly safer side.

assistsOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He’s at 1.5 assists for the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so the market is right on his average. This is a low-confidence over only because his recent play is holding steady and the line is modest.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.39 made threes per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 5, both below 2.5. That makes the under the more logical side, especially since the recent sample does not show a real spike above the line.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, which supports clearing 0.5 in a typical minutes role. This is still a volatile category, so confidence stays modest.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.4 blocks and the last 10 sits at 0.5, so this is a borderline line. Given the low mean and volatility, the under is the safer lean.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.23 stocks on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, both below 1.5. Even with some recent defensive activity, the combo number is still a step above his typical output.

turnoversUNDER 266%MEDIUM

His season turnover rate is only 0.8 and the last 10 is 1.1, well short of 2.0. Unless usage changes sharply, this line is too high.

prUNDER 15.562%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile comes to 16.9, but the market line is elevated and the under is supported by his subdued vs-opponent scoring history. Combo props carry more variance, so confidence stays moderate.

paUNDER 12.564%MEDIUM

He averages 12.6 points plus assists on the season, which is essentially on the number, but his opponent history and the conservative points outlook push this slightly under. This is a thin edge, not a strong play.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS