AI Model:

Victor Wembanyama—

SAS · C

PPG

24.2

RPG

11.0

APG

3.0

L5 PPG

25.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

24.2

25.0

RPG-0.4

11.0

10.6

APG+1.0

3.0

4.0

SPG+0.4

1.0

1.4

BPG0.0

3.0

UNDER 26.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

26.5

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 38 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 27 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 29 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 39 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 32 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 34 pts

IND

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs IND: 20 pts

Over 26.5

Under 26.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

82%

REB

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

74%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

60%

BLK

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

63%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

67%

PRA

UNDER 41.5FANDUEL

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

28.0

21.4

RPG

11.4

10.7

APG

3.4

3.5

vs MIA (H2H)4 games

PPG

21.0

RPG

13.0

APG

4.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Draymond Green	4	26	37%	-20.8%	medium
Jusuf Nurkić	3	23	38%	-18.7%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	20	67%	+15.9%	medium
Daniel Gafford	2	15	44%

Wembanyama’s floor is high, but the books still lean under on the scoring spike

Victor Wembanyama is in steady form, averaging 24.2 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on the season with 29.3 minutes per game. His recent production has been slightly above season scoring at 25.0 points over the last 5, but that comes with a season-level standard deviation of 8.18 points, so the scoring projection still carries real volatility. The matchup data is mixed: Miami allows a 117.07 defensive rating, but Wembanyama’s head-to-head sample against this opponent is only 21.0 points and 13.0 rebounds across 4 games, which pulls the projection down. With his prop market showing an under lean on points and rebounds, the cleaner angle is to trust the season baseline over the short-term hot streak.

Stat Trends

PPG

25.0(→ from 24.2)

RPG

10.6(→ from 11.0)

APG

4.0(↑ from 3.0)

Stocks

4.4(↑ from 4.0)

Key Matchup

Bam Adebayo is listed with 18.5 minutes and 33 points allowed in the provided data, and Andrew Wiggins is also listed but with just 1.1 minutes. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond that, so the safest read is to lean on the team-level numbers and Wembanyama’s own history rather than guessing individual coverage.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Victor Wembanyama▼	Points	26.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	40%	26	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	Rebounds	12.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	80%	15	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	Blocks	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	5	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	PRA	41.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	45	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA39OVER24%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

PTS25.5UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK4UNDER52%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

3PA6UNDER48%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 6x9/2045%▼

P+A29.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

FTM4.5UNDER25%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA5.5UNDER1%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -4.0▼

R+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+R38UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

REB12UNDER9%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST3UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

STL1UNDER35%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼

3PM2UNDER47%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Victor Wembanyama

Points UNDER 26.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the card: his season average is 24.24 points, his last 20 is 24.7, and the FanDuel value data shows a 26.3% edge on the under. Even with solid recent scoring, the number is still above his normal production range, making the under the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bam Adebayo	2	12	31	48%	58%
Kel'el Ware	2	5	0	0%	0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	2	2	0	0%	0%
Andrew Wiggins	2	2	13	86%	93%
Pelle Larsson	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 26.582%HIGH

His season mean is 24.24 points and his last 20 is 24.7, both below 26.5. The value data also shows strong under support at this line with a 26.3% edge at FanDuel.

reboundsUNDER 12.574%HIGH

He averages 11.04 rebounds on the season and 11.1 over the last 20, while the sportsbook line is 12.5. His head-to-head average of 13.0 rebounds is the main over argument, but the season baseline still points slightly under.

assistsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

Wembanyama is at 2.96 assists for the season and 3.2 over the last 10, so 3.5 is a modest step above his normal output. The recent bump is real, but the season mean still makes the under the safer side.

blocksUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 blocks on the season and 3.6 over the last 10, but the sportsbook is asking for 4+ blocks at 3.5. Because his blocks prop has meaningful volatility, the under is the more conservative play.

threesUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.93 made threes on the season and 2.28 at home, both below the 2.5 line. The recent 3.1 last-10 run is strong, but it sits well above season baseline and is more likely to regress.

praUNDER 41.558%MEDIUM

His season average PRA is 38.2, which is below 41.5, and combo props carry extra variance. The under is reasonable even with recent scoring and assist upticks.

timelineUNDER 26.5 PTS