AI Model:

Brandon Ingram▼

TOR · SG

PPG

21.6

RPG

5.6

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.0

21.6

22.6

RPG-1.2

5.6

4.4

APG-1.7

3.7

2.0

SPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

OVER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 31 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 22 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 36 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 34 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 19 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 6 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.7

18.3

RPG

5.0

4.9

APG

3.5

3.8

vs UTA (H2H)13 games

PPG

20.1

RPG

4.3

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Noah Clowney	3	19	54%	-0.9%	medium
Gary Trent Jr.	4	17	45%	-17.1%	medium
Zaccharie Risacher	4	16	44%	-9.6%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	16	83%

Ingram’s scoring stays playable, but the board leans conservative elsewhere

Brandon Ingram is averaging 21.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists this season across 34.0 MPG, with a slight downtrend in the recent sample as his last-10 scoring sits at 20.0 PPG. His last-5 scoring is 22.6 PPG, but that comes with a big drop in assists to 2.0 and a rough 6-point outing in his most recent game, so the form is uneven rather than fully hot. This matchup is backed by a very weak opponent defense profile overall, but the team is on a back-to-back and Ingram’s away scoring split is only 18.3 PPG, which keeps the projection from getting too aggressive. Opponent absence data also matters here, with Isaiah Collier out, but the cleaner edge is still on points rather than the more volatile combo markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(↑ from 21.6)

RPG

4.4(↓ from 5.6)

APG

2.0(↓ from 3.7)

Stocks

0.8(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense profile is favorable on paper with a 124.8 defensive rating and 100 pace, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond Cody Williams and Brice Sensabaugh with very small minutes. That limits matchup specificity, so the main takeaway is a soft overall team environment rather than a named one-on-one defensive edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Brandon Ingram▼	Points	21.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Brandon Ingram▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Brandon Ingram▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Brandon Ingram▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Brandon Ingram▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS22.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 8x5/2025%+19.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB5.5UNDER11%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.034▼

PRA30.5UNDER29%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%+10.1% edge▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER26%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted -0.270▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A23.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 8x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brandon Ingram

Points OVER 21.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the slate for him: season scoring is 21.6 PPG, and the value feed shows an 11.1% edge at DraftKings with an expected over probability of 0.644. Even with a down last-10 and back-to-back context, the line is still slightly below his season mean and the market value supports the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ace Bailey	1	4	0	0%	0%
Cody Williams	1	3	0	0%	0%
Svi Mykhailiuk	1	3	6	40%	60%
Lauri Markkanen	1	2	0	0%	0%
Brice Sensabaugh	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 21.566%MEDIUM

Season mean is 21.6 points and the best value data shows a 11.1% edge on the 21.5 line at DraftKings, with our projected over probability at 0.644. The recent 6-point game adds volatility, but the season baseline and 34.0 MPG support a modest OVER lean.

reboundsUNDER 5.563%MEDIUM

He averages 5.6 rebounds on the season, but his last-10 mark is 4.5 and last-5 is 4.4, both below this line. The board also shows positive UNDER value at 5.5, and the recent rebound trend is soft enough to favor the under.

assistsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.7 assists, but the last-5 has dropped to 2.0 and the last-10 is 3.0, pointing to reduced distribution. The available market data does not show a strong plus-edge over, so the safer read is UNDER on a modestly inflated line.

threesOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.78 threes per game on the season and 2.2 at home, which clears this line comfortably on volume alone. The recent sample is still 1.7, so this is a steadier OVER than the combo props.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.5, but last-5 is only 0.8 and last-10 is 1.3, so the recent form is below the threshold. Since the underlying category has meaningful variance, the under is the more conservative play.

timelineOVER 21.5 PTS