AI Model:

Brice Sensabaugh▲

UTA · SF

PPG

14.3

RPG

3.0

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

28.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+14.5

14.3

28.8

RPG+0.4

3.0

3.4

APG+0.7

1.7

2.4

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG+0.5

0.1

0.6

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

21.5

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 7 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 17 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 29 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 31 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 41 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

78%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

69%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

63%

STL

OVER 0.5

58%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

80%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

OVER 2

61%

P+R

UNDER 25.5FANDUEL

64%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.3

17.5

RPG

3.3

3.0

APG

1.9

2.1

vs TOR (H2H)4 games

PPG

8.3

RPG

1.8

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Naji Marshall	4	10	100%	+39.1%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	8	80%	+13.4%	medium
Christian Braun	3	7	60%	+13.4%	medium
Kris Dunn	3	7	0%

Hot streak meets regression risk in a tougher spot

Brice Sensabaugh is in strong form, with 28.8 PPG over his last 5 and 20.0 PPG over his last 10, well above his 14.3 season average. The concern is sustainability: his last-5 scoring is far above season baseline, and his season-to-game volatility is high with a 9.07 points standard deviation. Utah also has no specific defender matchup data provided, while Toronto’s defense context shows a 112.09 defensive rating and negative scoring/three suppression, which adds some resistance to ceiling outcomes.

Stat Trends

PPG

28.8(↑ from 14.3)

RPG

3.4(→ from 3.0)

APG

2.4(↑ from 1.7)

3PM

3.0(↑ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available, so there is no defender-specific edge to project. Toronto’s opponent defense context shows a 112.09 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative scoring/three suppression, which points to a slightly tougher scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	60%	24	✗
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✗
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%	1	✓
Brice Sensabaugh▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Brice Sensabaugh▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%	6	✓
Brice Sensabaugh▼	P+R	25.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	29	✗
Brice Sensabaugh▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	25	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS23.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+9.0% edge▼

PRA32.5UNDER31%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)5/2025%+21.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB4.5UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%+27.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST3.5UNDER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x7/2035%+8.5% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.230▼

3PM3.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+11.3% edge▼

P+R24.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A24UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brice Sensabaugh

Points UNDER 21.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the line is well above his 14.3 season average and still above his 20.0 last-10 mark. The 28.8 last-5 surge is strong, but it is materially higher than his baseline and the value data also supports the under at multiple books.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Gradey Dick	2	4	7	50%	58%
RJ Barrett	2	3	10	80%	100%
Ja'Kobe Walter	2	2	5	67%	83%
Sandro Mamukelashvili	2	2	3	100%	150%
Jamison Battle	1	1	3	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 21.578%HIGH

His season mean is 14.3 points and even the recent 20.0 over the last 10 sits below this line. The last 5 at 28.8 PPG is a clear hot streak, but that is well above his baseline and regression risk is strong.

reboundsUNDER 3.569%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 rebounds on the season and 3.2 over the last 10, so the 3.5 line is slightly above his typical output. His recent role bump helps, but not enough to make the over compelling.

assistsUNDER 2.571%HIGH

Season assists are 1.7 and last 10 are 2.3, still below the 2.5 line. The teammate absence of Isaiah Collier can support playmaking, but Sensabaugh has not shown enough assist volume for a strong over.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.09 made threes on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, but the current line asks for a high-end outcome. Given the over-bias warning and his shot variance, the under is still the safer side.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5. The line is low enough that one steal clears it, though the volatility keeps confidence modest.

blocksUNDER 0.580%HIGH

He averages just 0.1 blocks on the season and 0.3 over the last 10. Even with a short-term bump, 0.5 is still a tough ask.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.86, and even the last 10 are only 1.3. This is a high threshold relative to his normal defensive event volume.

turnoversOVER 261%MEDIUM

He has 2.3 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.6 over the last 5, which is above a 2.0 line. The recent scoring surge has come with a clear turnover increase.

prUNDER 25.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 17.35, and the current line is inflated by the recent scoring spike. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferred.

paUNDER 24.567%MEDIUM

He averages 16.0 points plus assists on the season and 22.3 over the last 10, which is still below this line. The recent run helps, but the book number is asking for another strong scoring night.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS