AI Model:

Cody Williams▼

UTA · SG

PPG

7.3

RPG

2.7

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

19.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+12.3

7.3

19.6

RPG+1.7

2.7

4.4

APG+2.5

1.5

4.0

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 9 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 19 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 34 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 7 pts

MIL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIL: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHI: 15 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5BETMGM

81%

REB

UNDER 3.5BETMGM

74%

AST

UNDER 2.5BETMGM

72%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

OVER 2

62%

PRA

UNDER 17.5

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.1

9.9

RPG

2.3

5.0

APG

3.2

2.5

vs TOR (H2H)3 games

PPG

8.7

RPG

2.7

APG

0.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	11	69%	+15.2%	medium
Jamal Murray	3	10	78%	+8.3%	medium
Stephon Castle	3	8	45%	-7.3%	medium
Kevin Durant	2	8	50%

Williams’ expanded role creates upside, but season baselines still point to caution

Cody Williams has clearly been playing above his season level lately, with 19.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 4.0 APG over the last 5 games while logging 32.2 MPG, compared to season marks of 7.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG, and 1.5 APG in 22.4 MPG. The spike is supported by Isaiah Collier being out, which should continue to open up usage and ball-handling opportunities. Still, his last-20 production (10.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.9 APG) is closer to a more realistic baseline than the last-5 surge, so regression risk is real. The current prop board also shows stronger value on the under side for his scoring and secondary stats.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.6(↑ from 7.3)

RPG

4.4(↑ from 2.7)

APG

4.0(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s defense context is not enough to force a specific defender call here, and there is no specific defender matchup data for this player beyond the listed key defenders. The opponent profile shows a 112.09 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative scoring/three suppression values, which does not create a strong scoring-friendly setup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Cody Williams▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	1/2	60%
Cody Williams▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	50%
Cody Williams▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	20%
Cody Williams▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	30%
Cody Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	70%
Cody Williams▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	40%
Cody Williams▼	PRA	17.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	20%

ML Scout Analysis

PRA24.5UNDER5%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%+8.1% edge▼

PTS15.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%+12.2% edge▼

AST3.5OVER30%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

FTA3OVER2%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA2UNDER52%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

R+A8OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

P+R18.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

P+A18.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

REB4.5OVER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

STL1UNDER15%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)6/2030%▼

FTM2UNDER26%gbtAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Cody Williams

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 7.3 PPG and the last-20 is 10.0 PPG, both materially below the line. The value board also backs the under with a 19.3% edge and 0.728 implied probability on the under at 13.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Brandon Ingram	1	2	0	0%	0%
RJ Barrett	1	1	2	0%	0%
Scottie Barnes	1	1	0	0%	0%
Immanuel Quickley	1	1	3	100%	150%
Collin Murray-Boyles	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 13.581%HIGH

His season mean is 7.3 PPG and his last-20 is 10.0 PPG, both well below this line despite the last-5 spike. The value data shows a 19.3% edge on the under at 13.5 with our_prob_under at 0.728.

reboundsUNDER 3.574%HIGH

He averages 2.7 RPG on the season and 3.8 RPG over the last 20, both below 3.5. The recent bump is smaller than the points surge, and the under is supported by the value data.

assistsUNDER 2.572%HIGH

Season assist production is 1.5 APG, and even the last-20 sample is 2.9 APG, making 2.5 a tougher ask than it looks. The line is supported by value data that favors the under on this number.

threesUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.43 threes per game for the season and 0.5 over the last 20, so this is close to a coin flip but slightly under-leaning. His overall three-point volume remains modest at 0.9 FG3M per game over the last 10 and 0.5 over the last 20.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.09 and last-20 is 1.4, both below 1.5. He can contribute defensively, but the combined threshold is still a bit high for his median outcome.

turnoversOVER 262%MEDIUM

He has averaged 2.2 turnovers over the last 5 and 2.0 over the last 10, with a season mark of 1.5. The expanded role from Isaiah Collier being out increases the chance he stays involved as a creator.

praUNDER 17.561%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 11.5 and his last-20 profile is still only 16.7, so 17.5 requires him to beat even his broader recent baseline. Combo props carry higher variance, so confidence stays conservative.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS