AI Model:

Jakob Poeltl▼

TOR · C

PPG

10.4

RPG

7.6

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.0

10.4

13.4

RPG+1.0

7.6

8.6

APG+0.3

2.1

2.4

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 18 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 9 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 16 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 8 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 6 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 21 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 17 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 23 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 0 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5BETONLINEAG

54%

REB

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

74%

AST

UNDER 2.5

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

PRA

UNDER 20.5

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.2

9.3

RPG

8.1

5.9

APG

2.0

1.8

vs UTA (H2H)9 games

PPG

9.8

RPG

6.7

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Kalkbrenner	3	21	57%	-12.7%	medium
Jalen Duren	2	13	75%	+5.2%	low
Kristaps Porziņģis	2	10	41%	-38.5%	low
Andre Drummond	1	10	25%

Poeltl's scoring is live, but the rebound line looks inflated

Jakob Poeltl is coming in with season averages of 10.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, while his last 5 games have ticked up to 13.4 points and 8.6 rebounds. The bigger note is the injury context: Toronto is on a back-to-back, and the provided value data shows the rebound side at 8.5 is strongly favoring the UNDER. Utah's defense numbers are also not especially friendly, with a 124.8 defensive rating context and a 2.145 scoring suppression mark, which keeps his ceiling in check. His recent volatility and the back-to-back add caution, especially for combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↑ from 10.4)

RPG

8.6(↑ from 7.6)

APG

2.4(↑ from 2.1)

Stocks

1.4(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent context does show Utah with a 124.8 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a 2.145 scoring suppression figure, which adds modest resistance to an efficient big-man profile.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jakob Poeltl▼	Points	12.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jakob Poeltl▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	60%
Jakob Poeltl▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Jakob Poeltl▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%
Jakob Poeltl▼	PRA	20.5	UNDER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	50%

ML Scout Analysis

REB7.5UNDER29%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%+14.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA22.5UNDER24%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+8.8% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS11.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jakob Poeltl

Rebounds UNDER 8.5HIGH

This is the strongest edge in the data, with a 13.9% edge at FanDuel and a 0.634 probability for the under. Poeltl's season rebounding average is 7.57, and the back-to-back adds a bit of downside risk to his minute stability.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsOVER 12.554%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.37, but recent form is 12.7 and the value data shows a slight lean to the OVER at 12.5 with our_prob_over at 0.559. That said, the edge is only 0.7%, so this is a thin play.

reboundsUNDER 8.574%HIGH

The value props data is clear: best side is UNDER with a 13.9% edge, our_prob_under at 0.634, and positive EV of 28.01. His season average is 7.57 rebounds, which is below the 8.5 line.

assistsUNDER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.09 assists for the season and 2.3 over the last 5, so 2.5 is a fair projected line and not a strong over spot. The season baseline still leans slightly below the number.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Poeltl's season stocks average is 1.54 and recent mark is 2.1, both supporting a modest over lean. His variance is manageable here compared to combo props, but confidence stays moderate.

praUNDER 20.552%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, 10.4 points + 7.6 rebounds + 2.1 assists projects to 20.1 PRA, which sits just under the line. Combo props are higher variance, so this is a cautious under.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS