AI Model:

Jamal Murray▲

DEN · PG

PPG

25.1

RPG

4.4

APG

7.2

L5 PPG

17.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-7.3

25.1

17.8

RPG+1.0

4.4

5.4

APG-0.2

7.2

7.0

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

25.5

LAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs LAL: 28 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 30 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 39 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 19 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 31 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 22 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 25.5STAKE

72%

AST

UNDER 8.5STAKE

64%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 3

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

78%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

OVER 2

55%

P+A

UNDER 33.5STAKE

61%

P+R

UNDER 29.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.2

26.2

RPG

3.9

5.3

APG

5.4

7.2

vs PHX (H2H)11 games

PPG

23.1

RPG

4.5

APG

6.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Amen Thompson	4	15	56%	+7.3%	medium
Josh Okogie	4	13	75%	+18.4%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	13	71%	+16.0%	medium
Dennis Schröder	4	11	40%

Murray’s scoring ceiling is there, but the recent dip and Phoenix context keep it tempered

Jamal Murray is still a high-usage guard with a season line of 25.1 PPG, 7.2 APG, and 4.4 RPG across 66 games, but his last 5 games have dipped to 17.8 PPG while the last 10 sit at 21.9 PPG. The matchup data is mixed: he has averaged 23.09 PPG and 6.09 APG in 11 games vs this opponent, and Phoenix allows a 110.99 defensive rating with negative scoring suppression. With Peyton Watson out, Murray can absorb some extra usage, but the recent scoring trend is below his season level and his home split is only 20.2 PPG.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.8(↓ from 25.1)

APG

7.0(→ from 7.2)

RPG

5.4(↑ from 4.4)

3PM

2.0(↓ from 3.1)

Key Matchup

He has averaged 23.09 PPG and 6.09 APG in 11 games against this opponent, while Phoenix carries a 110.99 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression. Key defender data is limited, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed minutes and points allowed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jamal Murray▼	Points	25.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	60%	21	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Assists	8.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	6	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Jamal Murray▼	3PM	3	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	3	✗
Jamal Murray▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Jamal Murray▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	80%	1	✗
Jamal Murray▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	10%	2	✗
Jamal Murray▼	P+A	33.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	27	✓
Jamal Murray▼	P+R	29.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS23.5OVER17%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA35.5OVER15%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

AST6OVER13%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB5UNDER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R30.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A33UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM5UNDER43%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTA5.5UNDER18%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

3PM3UNDER20%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

3PA7UNDER14%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jamal Murray

Points UNDER 25.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 25.1, but his last 5 are only 17.8 and his home production sits at 20.2 PPG. Phoenix’s defensive profile does not help the over case, and the line is slightly above his season mean.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Grayson Allen	3	7	2	25%	25%
Collin Gillespie	3	7	3	20%	30%
Jordan Goodwin	3	5	4	29%	29%
Dillon Brooks	2	4	7	33%	33%
Royce O'Neale	3	4	2	25%	25%

pointsUNDER 25.572%HIGH

His season mean is 25.1 PPG, but the last 5 are only 17.8 and his home split is 20.2 PPG. Phoenix also shows scoring suppression, so this number asks for more than his recent baseline.

assistsUNDER 8.564%MEDIUM

Murray’s season assist mean is 7.15 and his recent mean is 6.2, both below 8.5. Even though his away assist average is 7.83, the book line is still above his typical distribution.

reboundsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.4 rebounds on the season and 4.4 over the last 10, with a 5.4 rebound last-5 mark. The line is modest and below his average output.

threesUNDER 360%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.08 threes but the last 5 fell to 2.0 and the last 10 are 2.1. That recent drop makes 3.0 a fair threshold to fade.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5. At a 0.5 line, he has enough volume to clear it more often than not.

blocksUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He averages just 0.3 blocks on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. This is well above his normal baseline for a guard.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.24 and recent is 0.8, both under 1.5. Variance is meaningful here, so the under is the safer side.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He averages 2.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.2 on the season trend profile, with 3.0 turnovers in away games. A 2.0 line is reachable in a high-usage role.

paUNDER 33.561%MEDIUM

His season points+assists profile is strong, but the recent scoring dip limits upside and this combo prop is above the conservative blend of his current form. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferable.

prUNDER 29.566%MEDIUM

He averages 29.5 points+rebounds on the season exactly, but the last 5 scoring slide makes repeating that mark less likely. With the line at the season average, the under has the better risk profile.

timelineUNDER 25.5 PTS