AI Model:

James Harden▲

CLE · PG

PPG

24.3

RPG

4.9

APG

8.0

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.7

24.3

22.6

RPG+1.1

4.9

6.0

APG-0.2

8.0

7.8

SPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

23.5

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 19 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 30 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 17 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 36 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 20 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5STAKE

62%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

67%

AST

UNDER 8.5STAKE

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

OVER 3.5

64%

P+R

OVER 28.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 32.5STAKE

56%

R+A

UNDER 13.5STAKE

63%

OVER 0.5

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.4

23.0

RPG

4.5

5.7

APG

7.6

8.2

vs ORL (H2H)14 games

PPG

23.1

RPG

7.3

APG

8.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Cooper Flagg	4	16	60%	+16.0%	medium
Jaylen Wells	3	14	83%	+22.7%	medium
Dyson Daniels	2	12	0%	-44.0%	low
LeBron James	4	12	50%

Harden’s assist floor stays strong, but scoring is more nuanced in a tough matchup

James Harden is averaging 24.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 8.0 APG on the season, with his last 5 showing 22.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 7.8 APG on 34.8 MPG. His recent form is solid but slightly below season scoring, while the matchup brings a defensive environment that has suppressed scoring and threes overall. The biggest boost comes from teammate absences, especially the loss of Jarrett Allen and other rotation minutes, which should help Harden maintain high usage and playmaking responsibility. Against Orlando specifically, he has averaged 23.142857142857142 PPG, 7.285714285714286 RPG, and 8.142857142857142 APG across 14 games, so the passing and all-around production remain live.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(↓ from 24.3)

APG

7.8(→ from 8.0)

RPG

6.0(↑ from 4.9)

Key Matchup

Orlando’s team defense context shows a 114.34 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, plus no specific defender matchup data was provided. The opponent is also on a back-to-back, while Harden faces a home game with his team on three days rest, which helps offset some of the defensive friction.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
James Harden▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	70%		26	✗
James Harden▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	90%		3	✗
James Harden▼	Assists	8.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	70%		7	✓
James Harden▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	80%		1	✓
James Harden▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	70%		1	✗
James Harden▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	70%	1.5→2.5	2	✗
James Harden▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	60%		2	✗
James Harden▼	P+R	28.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	40%	FLIP	29	✓
James Harden▼	P+A	32.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	70%		33	✗
James Harden▼	R+A	13.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	50%		10	✓
James Harden▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R26UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%▼

P+A28.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

James Harden

Rebounds OVER 4.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest edge relative to his role: Harden is at 4.9 RPG on the season and 5.8 RPG over the last 5, with no major minutes concern at 34.9 MPG recently. The line is modest and supported by both his current production and the extra rotation absences around him.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tristan da Silva	3	9	2	13%	13%
Paolo Banchero	2	9	9	50%	58%
Franz Wagner	1	4	6	60%	60%
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	3	5	67%	83%
Desmond Bane	3	3	4	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 23.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 24.3, but the last 10 are 22.3 and the last 5 are 22.6, which sits below this 23.5 line. Orlando also has a scoring suppression profile, so this is a slight lean under despite the usage bump from teammate absences.

reboundsOVER 4.567%MEDIUM

Harden is at 4.9 RPG for the season and 5.8 RPG over the last 5, with 6.0 rebounds in his most recent sample. The 4.5 line is modest relative to his current role and recent board production.

assistsUNDER 8.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.02 APG and last 10 is 7.7 APG, both below this 8.5 line. Even with increased responsibility, the B2B context for Orlando and his recent turnover volume add some volatility to the over.

stealsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season, and his last 10 is only 0.7 SPG. The line asks for multiple steals, which is above his normal baseline.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

Harden averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10. This is a low-volume category for him, so the under is the cleaner side.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.53, but the last 10 is 1.0 and the last 20 is 1.4, showing a softer recent pace. Because this stat is volatile and the recent trend is down, the under is slightly favored.

turnoversOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

He has 3.5 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 3.8 over the last 5, right in range for an over against a usage-heavy role. With his playmaking load and recent game logs showing multiple 4+ TO outings, the over is viable.

prOVER 28.560%MEDIUM

His season combined production is 29.22 PRA using 24.3 points and 4.9 rebounds, which is above this line. Even though combo props are volatile, the reduced teammate availability helps stabilize his volume.

paUNDER 32.556%MEDIUM

He averages 32.3 points plus assists on the season, essentially right at this line, while his last 10 is 30.0. Given the over-bias caution and his slightly lower recent scoring, the under is preferred.

raUNDER 13.563%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists comes out to 12.9, and the last 10 is 13.5 exactly. Since the line is set above or at his typical level and combo props are high variance, the under gets the edge.

double_doubleOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He has strong double-double potential through points and assists, with 24.3 PPG and 8.0 APG on the season. The assist-plus-scoring profile plus extra usage from teammate absences makes a double-double plausible.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS