Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 2 | 11 | 69% | +19.3% | low |
| Matas Buzelis | 4 | 10 | 83% | +23.5% | medium |
| Anthony Black | 2 | 10 | 14% | -28.9% | low |
| Jalen Johnson | 3 | 10 | 54% |
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brandon Miller▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 85%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
Brandon Miller▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | UNDER | 95%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 6 | ✓ |
Brandon Miller▼ | Points | 17.5 | OVER | 95%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 13 | ✗ |
Brandon Miller▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 75%HIGH | 1/2 | 40% | 4 | ✓ |
Brandon Miller▼ | R+A | 8.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 10 | ✓ |
Brandon Miller▼ | P+R | 24.5 | OVER | 80%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | 19 | ✗ |
Brandon Miller▼ | PRA | 27.5 | OVER | 85%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 23 | ✗ |
Brandon Miller▼ | P+A | 22.5 | OVER | 85%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 17 | ✗ |
Brandon Miller▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 85%HIGH | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
| medium |
| Ryan Rollins | 2 | 9 | 110% | +36.8% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor Scheierman | 2 | 4 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Derrick White | 1 | 3 | 11 | 50% | 56% |
| Jordan Walsh | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Sam Hauser | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Payton Pritchard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Brandon Miller is averaging 4.4 3PM over his last 5 games and 3.9 3PM at home, significantly higher than this 2.5 line. Despite Boston's three-point suppression (-0.279), Miller's high volume (9.6 3PA in last 5) and the 28.4% value edge make this a strong play.
Miller averages only 5.1 RPG on the season and has not exceeded a 6.0 average in any split (Last 20: 6.0, Home: 5.9). Sharp money moved the market line down from 5.5 to 4.5, and the value calculator identifies a massive 28.3% edge for the UNDER at 6.5.
Sharp money moved Miller's points line from 14.5 up to 19.5, making 17.5 an elite value play. He averages 21.4 PPG at home and 22.0 PPG over his last 5 games, and the 29 projected minutes are sufficient to clear this line.
Miller is trending upward with 4.0 APG over his last 5 games and 3.8 APG at home, clearing this line in 3 of his last 5 outings. While his H2H average vs BOS is lower (2.8), his current role as a primary playmaker supports the 15% value edge.
Miller's home average for Rebounds + Assists is 9.7, and he has averaged 9.6 over his last 5 games. Although his rebounding is projected to stay low, his increased assist trend (4.0 last 5) provides enough cushion to clear 8.5.
Miller's season PR average of 25.6 and home average of 27.3 both sit above this line. The sharp movement on his points line (up to 19.5) suggests a high scoring ceiling that offsets his lower rebounding floor.
Miller has cleared 27.5 PRA in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 31.6 in that span. His home average of 31.1 PRA and the significant sharp signal on his scoring volume make this a high-conviction OVER.
Miller's PA average is 25.2 at home and 26.0 over his last 5 games, clearing this line in 4 of his last 5. With sharps betting his points line up to 19.5 and his assists trending at 4.0, he is well-positioned to exceed 22.5.
Miller has recorded a block in only 2 of his last 10 games, averaging just 0.2 BPG in that period. Historical data shows blocks UNDER is the most profitable prop type (71.4% hit rate), and Boston's elite offense rarely allows blocks to opposing guards.