Amen Thompson averages 17.0 PPG on the road and 18.0 PPG over his last 5 games, both below the 18.5 line. Sharp money has moved the line down from 18.5 to 17.5, and the value calculator identifies a significant 19.6% edge on the UNDER despite his 37 projected minutes.

Thompson has failed to clear 5.5 assists in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging just 4.4 APG in that span. While he is the primary ball handler tonight with 37 projected minutes, his season average (5.17) and road average (5.25) both support the UNDER, which carries a 9.9% edge.

Thompson is trending upward with 9.0 RPG over his last 5 games and recorded 12 rebounds in his last H2H matchup against New Orleans. With 37 projected minutes in a high-pace environment (102.61), he is well-positioned to clear a line he has beaten in 3 of his last 5 games.

Thompson's recent 5-game average of 22.4 PA and his road scoring average of 17.0 PPG suggest he will struggle to clear this combined line. The sharp downward movement on his points line and the 9.9% edge on his assist under make the combined under the statistically favored play.

Thompson's high-volume rebounding (9.0 L5) and 37 projected minutes provide a strong floor, having averaged 31.4 PRA over his last 5 games. He exploded for 43 PRA in his last meeting with New Orleans, demonstrating a high ceiling against their 119.31 defensive rating.

Thompson has cleared 25.5 PR in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging 27.0 PR over his last five. His 37 projected minutes and the Pelicans' poor scoring suppression (0.846) support a high-counting stat night, especially given his 35 PR performance in the last H2H.

Thompson's elite rebounding for a guard (9.0 RPG over last 5) carries this prop, as he has cleared 12.5 RA in 3 of his last 5 games. His previous 20 RA performance against New Orleans demonstrates his ability to exploit their high-pace, low-efficiency style in heavy minutes.

Thompson has failed to record more than 1 steal in 3 of his last 5 games and averages only 0.9 over his last ten. His season average of 1.4 and away split of 1.2 both fall below the 1.5 line, making the under the trend-based choice despite his 37 projected minutes.

Historical data shows that picking UNDER on blocks is the most profitable strategy with a 71.4% hit rate. Thompson recorded zero blocks in his last matchup against New Orleans, and while he is averaging 1.2 blocks recently, his season average (0.6) is structurally aligned with the under.