Reed Sheppard v2 Props — Houston Rockets vs New Orleans Pelicans

AI Model:

Reed Sheppard

HOU · PG

PPG

13.5

RPG

2.9

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

15.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

13.5

15.0

RPG+1.9

2.9

4.8

APG+3.0

3.4

6.4

SPG+1.1

1.5

2.6

BPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 7 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 11 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 14 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 23 pts

CHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs CHI: 13 pts

MIN

2026-03-25

2026-03-25 vs MIN: 10 pts

MEM

2026-03-27

2026-03-27 vs MEM: 15 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5

80%

AST

UNDER 4.5

75%

REB

OVER 3.5

85%

3PM

UNDER 3.5

85%

PRA

UNDER 23.5

70%

STL

OVER 1.5

90%

P+R

UNDER 18.5

75%

R+A

UNDER 8.5

65%

P+A

UNDER 19.5

80%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.0

11.8

RPG

3.3

5.0

APG

4.8

4.0

vs NOP (H2H)6 games

PPG

7.5

RPG

3.7

APG

2.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bruce Brown	4	14	50%	+6.8%	medium
Nique Clifford	4	13	56%	+6.8%	medium
Davion Mitchell	2	12	33%	-9.9%	low
John Konchar	3	10	0%

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Reed Sheppard▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	1/2	70%	6	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	1/2	70%	2	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	85%HIGH	2/2	60%	2	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	85%HIGH	2/2	70%	2	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	PRA	23.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	60%	10	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	90%HIGH	1/2	70%	0	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	2/2	70%	8	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	70%	8	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	40%	1	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA20.5OVER13%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)14/2070%+16.3% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.389; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

REB3.5OVER6%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.048▼

AST3.5OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.042▼

STL1.5UNDER16%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM2.5UNDER33%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)14/2070%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS13.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

P+A20UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Herbert Jones	3	8	5	14%	21%
Jeremiah Fears	4	5	8	43%	57%
Jose Alvarado	1	4	3	50%	75%
Saddiq Bey	4	3	7	40%	50%
Micah Peavy	1	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.580%HIGH

Sheppard averages 11.8 PPG away and 13.5 PPG on the season, both below the 14.5 line. The value calculator identifies a 25% edge on the UNDER, and he has failed to clear this mark in 3 of his last 5 games despite a projected 29.5 minutes.

assistsUNDER 4.575%HIGH

While he had a 14-assist outlier recently, his season average (3.4) and away split (4.0) are both below the 4.5 line. The value calculator shows a 24.2% edge for the UNDER, and his H2H average against New Orleans is just 2.7 APG.

reboundsOVER 3.585%HIGH

Sheppard is averaging 5.0 RPG in away games and has cleared the 3.5 line in 4 of his last 5 appearances. His recent trend of 4.8 RPG over the last 5 games significantly exceeds the line, supported by a projected 29.5 minutes tonight.

threesUNDER 3.585%HIGH

Sheppard averages 2.2 3PM away and 2.7 on the season, significantly lower than the 3.5 line. New Orleans features a -1.053 three-point suppression rating, and Sheppard has stayed under this total in 8 of his last 10 games.

praUNDER 23.570%HIGH

His season PRA of 19.8 and away PRA of 20.8 are well below the 23.5 line. Recent production is heavily skewed by a single 39 PRA performance, but he has failed to reach 24 PRA in 7 of his last 10 games.

stealsOVER 1.590%HIGH

Sheppard is a defensive disruptor averaging 2.5 SPG in away games and 2.6 SPG over his last 5. He has recorded at least 2 steals in 9 of his last 10 games, and historical data shows Steals OVER is a high-performing prop type (55.8%).

prUNDER 18.575%HIGH

Sheppard's combined points and rebounds average 16.4 on the season and 16.8 in away games, both trailing the 18.5 line. He has stayed under this total in 7 of his last 10 games, consistent with the opponent's 0.846 scoring suppression.

raUNDER 8.565%MEDIUM

His season RA average is 6.3, and even with a recent uptick, his away split sits at 9.0. Removing his 16 RA outlier from the last 5 games leaves an average of 8.0, suggesting the 8.5 line is slightly inflated relative to his typical output.

paUNDER 19.580%HIGH

Sheppard's season PA (16.9) and away PA (15.8) are significantly lower than the 19.5 line. He has failed to clear this mark in 8 of his last 10 games, and the value calculator shows a strong edge for the UNDER on his points and assists components.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

Although Sheppard averages 0.7 BPG, blocks UNDER is structurally advantaged with a 71.4% historical hit rate. He has recorded 0 blocks in 3 of his last 7 games, and Udoka's rotation could limit his rim-protection opportunities if Houston pulls starters in a blowout.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

UNDER 14.5 PTS