Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | 4 | 24 | 42% | -11.4% | medium |
| Luka Dončić | 4 | 22 | 57% | -1.5% | medium |
| Russell Westbrook | 3 | 14 | 40% | -8.2% | medium |
| Amen Thompson | 4 | 12 | 83% |
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kris Dunn▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 90%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 10 | ✗ |
Kris Dunn▼ | Assists | 3.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 5 | ✗ |
Kris Dunn▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 85%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Kris Dunn▼ | P+R | 8.5 | UNDER | 85%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 12 | ✗ |
Kris Dunn▼ | R+A | 6.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 7 | ✗ |
Kris Dunn▼ | P+A | 8.5 | UNDER | 80%HIGH | 2/2 | 30% | 15 | ✗ |
| medium |
| Tyrese Maxey | 2 | 12 | 60% | +1.8% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Green | 2 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 2 | 3 | 5 | 25% | 38% |
| Ousmane Dieng | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Pete Nance | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Ryan Rollins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
Dunn is in a significant scoring slump, averaging only 4.2 PPG over his last 5 games and 5.4 PPG over his last 10. He has cleared this 7.5 line only once in his last 10 appearances (9 pts vs SAS). Tyronn Lue's rotation plan projects Dunn for 26 minutes, but this drops to 25.3 in a blowout, which has a 'VERY_HIGH' probability tonight. The value calculator shows a massive 39.9% edge on the UNDER, and his H2H average against Milwaukee is also low at 4.2 PPG.
Dunn's recent trend is downward, averaging 3.2 APG over his last 5 games, with 3 of those 5 games falling under this 3.5 line. While his H2H average against Milwaukee is historically high at 6.6 APG, he recorded only 3 assists in their most recent matchup on March 23. The 'VERY_HIGH' blowout risk caps his minutes at a projected 25.3, which is a decrease from his 27.4 season average. Despite the value calculator's OVER edge, the reduced volume in a blowout scenario strongly favors the UNDER.
The rebounds line has seen significant sharp movement, dropping from 3.5 to 2.5 with a confirmed sharp signal indicating professional money is on the UNDER. Dunn's season average of 3.34 RPG is already below this 3.5 line, and he has failed to clear it in 3 of his last 5 games. Tyronn Lue's blowout adjustment caps starters at 25.3 minutes, further limiting his rebounding opportunities. Although the value calculator suggests a slight OVER edge, the sharp market direction and blowout context make the UNDER the priority play.
This combo prop is heavily suppressed by Dunn's scoring drought, as he is averaging just 4.2 PPG in his last 5 games. His combined Points and Rebounds average over the last 5 games is 7.8, and he has failed to clear this 8.5 PR total in 4 of his last 5 games (totals of 5, 5, 8, and 6). With a projected minutes cap of 25.3 due to the -18.5 spread and high blowout probability, there is insufficient volume to expect him to exceed his season average of 10.86 PR.
Dunn's Rebounds and Assists (RA) average over his last 10 games is 6.7, but the sharp money signal on his rebounds is trending downward. He has cleared this line in 3 of his last 5 games, but those games included minute totals as high as 34, whereas he is projected for only 25.3 minutes tonight. The combination of reduced playing time and the league-leading blowout probability creates a low ceiling for this combo prop. His H2H RA in the last game against Milwaukee was only 4, supporting the UNDER.
Dunn's Points and Assists (PA) average has plummeted to 7.4 over his last 5 games, which is well below this 8.5 line. He has failed to clear this total in 2 of his last 3 games, including a 3-PA performance against Indiana and a 4-PA performance against Toronto. His season average of 11.14 PA is inflated by early-season production that has vanished during his recent trend down. In a projected blowout where he is expected to sit the 4th quarter, the volume simply isn't there to reach 9 PA.