Chet Holmgren v2 Props — Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers

AI Model:

Chet Holmgren

OKC ·

PPG

17.3

RPG

8.9

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

19.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.5

17.3

19.8

RPG+0.7

8.9

9.6

APG+0.1

1.7

1.8

SPG+0.9

0.7

1.6

BPG+0.3

1.9

2.2

OVER 1.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

1.5

LAL

2026-04-02

2026-04-02 vs LAL: 7 pts

UTA

2026-04-05

2026-04-05 vs UTA: 21 pts

LAL

2026-04-07

2026-04-07 vs LAL: 15 pts

LAC

2026-04-08

2026-04-08 vs LAC: 30 pts

PHX

2026-04-19

2026-04-19 vs PHX: 16 pts

PHX

2026-04-22

2026-04-22 vs PHX: 19 pts

PHX

2026-04-25

2026-04-25 vs PHX: 10 pts

PHX

2026-04-27

2026-04-27 vs PHX: 24 pts

LAL

2026-05-05

2026-05-05 vs LAL: 24 pts

LAL

2026-05-07

2026-05-07 vs LAL: 22 pts

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

3PM

OVER 1.5

85%

PTS

OVER 16.5

85%

AST

OVER 1.5

70%

REB

UNDER 8.5

60%

PRA

OVER 26.5

80%

P+R

OVER 25.5

75%

P+A

OVER 17.5

75%

R+A

OVER 10.5

65%

STL

OVER 1.5

75%

BLK

UNDER 1.5

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.2

19.8

RPG

7.8

10.8

APG

0.8

2.5

vs LAL (H2H)12 games

PPG

14.8

RPG

7.1

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dillon Brooks	8	22	55%	-7.0%	medium
Rui Hachimura	5	21	75%	-0.3%	medium
Oso Ighodaro	8	19	60%	+4.1%	medium
Mark Williams	4	18	45%

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Chet Holmgren▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	85%HIGH	1/2	70%
Chet Holmgren▼	Points	16.5	OVER	85%HIGH	2/2	60%
Chet Holmgren▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%
Chet Holmgren▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Chet Holmgren▼	PRA	26.5	OVER	80%HIGH	2/2	60%
Chet Holmgren▼	P+R	25.5	OVER	75%HIGH	1/2	60%
Chet Holmgren▼	P+A	17.5	OVER	75%HIGH	1/2	60%
Chet Holmgren▼	R+A	10.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Chet Holmgren▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	75%HIGH	1/2	60%
Chet Holmgren▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	20%

ML Scout Analysis

PRA27.5OVER1%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.048▼

PTS15.5OVER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x13/2065%+9.8% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.256▼

P+A18.5UNDER70%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

REB8.5UNDER19%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x12/2060%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK1.5UNDER28%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+R25.5UNDER70%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

AST1.5OVER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.135▼

STL1.5UNDER37%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A10.5UNDER70%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER41%gbt_three_pmAvoid (5/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Rui Hachimura	5	21	28	56%	75%
Deandre Ayton	6	10	4	17%	17%
Jake LaRavia	6	5	3	20%	30%
Jaxson Hayes	3	4	6	75%	75%
Austin Reaves	5	4	10	22%	22%

threesOVER 1.585%HIGH

H2H avg 1.8, JWill OUT boosts usage

pointsOVER 16.585%HIGH

Playoff avg 19.2, JWill OUT, 4-game without avg 20

assistsOVER 1.570%HIGH

Without JWill avg 2.2, crunch time handler

reboundsUNDER 8.560%MEDIUM

vs LAL H2H avg 7.1, blowout risk caps min

praOVER 26.580%HIGH

Without JWill avg 32.2 P+R+A, stronger role

prOVER 25.575%HIGH

Without JWill avg 30 P+R, 4 of last5 cleared

paOVER 17.575%HIGH

Without JWill avg 22.2 P+A, consistent usage

raOVER 10.565%MEDIUM

Without JWill avg 12.2 R+A, role expansion

stealsOVER 1.575%HIGH

Last5 avg 1.6, without JWill avg 2.0

blocksUNDER 1.570%HIGH

H2H avg 1.3, 3 of 4 without JWill under 2

timelineOVER 1.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

OVER 1.5 PTS