Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Joel Embiid▼ PHI	Points	25.5provided data	UNDER	85%HIGH	40%	+43.8%	24	✓
Josh Hart▼ NYK	Points	12.5provided data	UNDER	80%HIGH	80%	+16.8%	17	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼ SAS	3PM	1.5provided	OVER	80%HIGH	60%	+12.9%	1	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼ SAS	Points	17.5provided	OVER	80%HIGH	50%	+9.3%	24	✓
Joel Embiid▼ PHI	Rebounds	7.5provided data	UNDER	75%HIGH	50%	+40.3%	5	✓
Joel Embiid▼ PHI	Assists	4.5provided data	UNDER	75%HIGH	40%	+40.2%	4	✓
Josh Hart▼ NYK	Rebounds	9.5provided data	UNDER	75%HIGH	70%	+15.8%	9	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼ SAS	Assists	5.5provided	OVER	75%HIGH	60%	+8.6%	3	✗
Julian Champagnie▼ SAS	3PM	1.5provided	OVER	75%HIGH	80%	+13.7%	0	✗
Rudy Gobert▼ MIN	Rebounds	10.5provided	OVER	75%HIGH	40%	+8.5%	13	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼ PHI	Points	12.5provided data	OVER	70%HIGH	50%	+18.7%	8	✗
Julian Champagnie▼ SAS	Points	8.5provided	OVER	70%HIGH	60%	+13.4%	8	✗
Rudy Gobert▼ MIN	Points	8.5provided	UNDER	70%HIGH	60%	+16.2%	11	✗
Devin Vassell▼ SAS	3PM	1.5provided	OVER	70%HIGH	50%	+11.6%	2	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼ PHI	Rebounds	5.5provided data	OVER	65%HIGH	60%	+15.8%	6	✓
Karl-Anthony Towns▼ NYK	Rebounds	10.5provided data	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	60%	+11.7%	4	✓

Results & Analysis

61.9%112/181 picks hit

25 close calls

HIGH62%

59/95

MEDIUM62%

53/86

OVER45%

23/51

UNDER69%

89/130

Why Picks Missed

Close Calls (25)Narrowly missed (scaled by prop type)

+2.5Karl-Anthony TownsP+AUNDER 24.5→27

+2.5Devin VassellP+AUNDER 14.5→17

+1.5Julian ChampagnieAssistsUNDER 1.5→3

+1.5Julian ChampagnieR+AUNDER 6.5→8

+1.5Devin VassellPointsUNDER 12.5→14

Biggest Misses (5)Way off (scaled by prop type)

+10.5Anthony EdwardsPointsUNDER 25.5 → 36

Unexpected spike in usage and efficiency with 28 FGA in competitive game; MIN offense relied heavily on Edwards despite projection banking on blowout risk, so he played full minutes and shot often.

+10.5Anthony EdwardsP+RUNDER 31.5 → 42

Blowout did not materialize; Edwards played full minutes, posted a massive scoring night and contributed above-average rebounds, far exceeding recent averages.

+7.5Anthony EdwardsP+AUNDER 30.5 → 38

Edwards functioned as a primary ballhandler for extended stretches, racking up high points and assists with the team in attack mode wire-to-wire.

+4.5Karl-Anthony TownsAssistsUNDER 5.5 → 10

Career-high playmaking night as MIN ran offense through KAT, unusually high potential assists with shooters converting.

-3.5Victor WembanyamaBlocksOVER 3.5 → 0

Rare blockless night due to PHI perimeter-heavy offense; few rim attacks and quick ball movement neutralized his rim protection.

Lessons for Tomorrow

-Incorporate recent foul rates and backup rotation shifts into minute projections for young/high-variance players.
-Weight recent and matchup-specific pace/defense data more heavily to adjust for game environment mismatches.
-Flag volume shooter props for wider range projections to account for high standard deviation nights.
-Review opponent-specific tendencies that can alter player usage or rotations pre-tip.
-Simulate game flow for late-game fouling or garbage-time impacts, especially for close lines.
-Model rare stat events (blocks/steals for non-bigs/non-defenders) with higher variance and greater regression to mean.
-Implement OT/close-game probability into projections for high-minute players.
-Do not overestimate blowout or low-usage risk for stars in perceived mismatch games — if there's reasonable close-game risk, project full minutes.