C
Marvin Bagley III▼
DAL · C
PPG
10.1
RPG
6.2
APG
1.4
L5 PPG
5.8
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-4.3
10.1
5.8
RPG0.0
6.2
6.2
APG+0.2
1.4
1.6
UNDER 10.5 PTS
Last 5 games
5
Current Streak
5
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
10.5
6
TOR
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs TOR: 6 pts
7
ATL
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs ATL: 7 pts
6
MEM
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs MEM: 6 pts
4
CLE
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 vs CLE: 4 pts
6
CLE
2026-03-15
2026-03-15 vs CLE: 6 pts
Over 10.5
Under 10.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 10.5
68%
REB
OVER 6.5
62%
AST
OVER 1.5
55%
vs ??? (H2H)5 games
PPG
11.2
RPG
7.0
APG
0.6
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert | 3 | 16 | 100% | +38.4% | medium |
| Evan Mobley | 3 | 13 | 41% | -24.1% | medium |
| Maxime Raynaud | 3 | 11 | 67% | +5.1% | medium |
| Myles Turner | 3 | 11 | 70% |
Bagley Struggles in Downturn; Limited Upside vs. New Orleans
Marvin Bagley III is in a clear scoring slump, averaging just 5.8 PPG over his last 5 games compared to 10.1 for the season, despite maintaining similar minutes (20.6 MPG). Dallas is on a back-to-back, which typically suppresses his production (9.5 PPG average). Against New Orleans' mediocre interior defense (119.84 DRtg), Bagley has historically performed well with 11.2 PPG in 5 prior meetings, but his recent form suggests limited upside. Rebounds remain his most consistent outlet at 7.3 RPG recently, but overall volume is trending down.
Stat Trends
PPG
5.8(↓ from 10.1)
RPG
6.2(→ from 6.2)
APG
1.6(↑ from 1.4)
Key Matchup
Zion Williamson has been the primary defender in prior matchups (4.1 minutes), allowing 13 points on 83.3% FG—suggesting defensive vulnerability for scoring. However, Bagley's current 5.8 PPG slump likely limits ability to exploit this advantage.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marvin Bagley III▼ | Points | 10.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 100% | 9 | ✓ |
Marvin Bagley III▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 9 | ✓ |
Marvin Bagley III▼ | Assists | 1.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
pointsUNDER 10.568%MEDIUM
Last 5 games average 5.8 PPG with back-to-back fatigue typical of 9.5 PPG. Recent form trumps season average of 10.1.
ML Scout Analysis
PRA18.5UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼
P+A12UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼
P+R17.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (6/20)8/2040%▼
PTS9OVER6%gbt_pointsAvoid (5/20)8/2040%▼
REB7UNDER24%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)8/2040%▼
AST1UNDER4%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)7/2035%▼
3PA1UNDER30%gbtAvoid (5/20)7/2035%▼
FTM1UNDER30%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼
FTA2UNDER17%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼
R+A8OVER0%gbt_raAvoid (5/20)10/2050%▼
Featured Pick
Marvin Bagley III
Rebounds OVER 6.5MEDIUM
Bagley's rebounding has stabilized at 6.2-7.3 RPG over recent stretches, and New Orleans' interior is vulnerable. This is his most consistent statistical outlet despite offensive struggles. Back-to-back status less damaging to rebounding productivity than scoring.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.