Last 5 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks | 3 | 14 | 40% | -5.1% | medium |
| Julius Randle | 3 | 14 | 55% | +4.9% | medium |
| Rui Hachimura | 3 | 13 | 0% | -45.1% | medium |
| P.J. Washington | 4 | 12 | 93% |
Saddiq Bey has cooled significantly in his last 5 games (15.2 PPG, down from 19.2 in last 10), including just 5 points on 30 minutes against Houston. Against Dallas, he averages only 12.5 PPG across 11 head-to-head matchups, well below his season 17.1 PPG. The Mavericks' defensive rating of 118.1 with strong scoring suppression (0.644) presents a challenging environment, though Dallas allows the most threes on a per-game basis. Playing at home without back-to-back fatigue should provide marginal support, but recent form and historical underperformance against this opponent are concerning.
P.J. Washington has been Bey's primary defender in recent matchups, allowing 11 points on 83% FG across 10.4 minutes. This limited sample is encouraging for Dallas, but the Mavericks' overall defensive efficiency suggests Dallas will likely employ solid perimeter coverage to contain Bey's shot-making.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saddiq Bey▼ | Points | 17.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 23 | ✗ |
Saddiq Bey▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 6 | ✗ |
Saddiq Bey▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 0% | 1 | ✗ |
Saddiq Bey▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 3 | ✗ |
Bey's 12.5 PPG average against Dallas over 11 games is the most reliable data point here. Recent form (15.2 last 5) and Dallas's strong defensive rating (118.1) align with a below-season-average performance. The prop sits 2 PPG above his Dallas average, making the under attractive despite home court context.
| medium |
| Harrison Barnes | 4 | 11 | 33% | -11.8% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 4 | 12 | 13 | 86% | 93% |
| Naji Marshall | 4 | 8 | 5 | 50% | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg | 4 | 5 | 4 | 40% | 40% |
| Max Christie | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Klay Thompson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Bey averages just 12.5 PPG vs Dallas historically and has scored 15.2 PPG over his last 5 games. Dallas defense suppresses scoring effectively with 0.644 suppression rate.
Recent 5-game rebounding average is 5.2 RPG, slightly below the 5.5 line. Home rebound advantage (6.1 home vs 5.37 away) is offset by the matchup difficulty.
Season average is 1.92 threes with 2.13 three-pointers made in away games. Dallas allows negative three-point suppression (-1.683), suggesting above-average perimeter opportunities.
Last 5 games show 1.4 APG, well below the 2.5 line. Recent 10-game average of 2.6 is barely above the prop and recent trend is declining.