Trey Murphy III—

NOP · SG

PPG

21.9

RPG

5.7

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

21.8

Last 5 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.1

21.9

21.8

RPG-0.3

5.7

5.4

APG+0.5

3.9

4.4

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 5 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 21 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 22 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 24 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 28 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 14 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 5 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5

68%

AST

OVER 3.5

70%

3PM

OVER 3.5

65%

REB

UNDER 5.5

62%

PRA

UNDER 25.5

66%

vs ??? (H2H)15 games

PPG

14.9

RPG

4.5

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Wells	4	15	58%	+3.0%	medium
Devin Vassell	4	14	35%	-23.9%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	14	73%	+7.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	44%

Murphy Stable at Home, But Dallas Defense Suppresses His Scoring

Trey Murphy III maintains a stable 21.8 PPG over his last 5 games with consistent efficiency, but faces a Dallas defense allowing just 14.9 PPG to him historically across 15 matchups. The Mavericks' elite perimeter defense (118.1 def rating, 0.644 scoring suppression) presents a matchup challenge despite Murphy's home court advantage (22.47 PPG at home). His assist numbers are trending up (4.7 last 5 vs 3.86 season average), but New Orleans' rest advantage (3 days) may not overcome Dallas' back-to-back energy.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.8(→ from 21.9)

APG

4.4(↑ from 3.9)

3PM

4.0(↑ from 3.3)

RPG

5.4(→ from 5.7)

Key Matchup

P.J. Washington ($20 pts allowed over 17.7 min) and Cooper Flagg (12 pts allowed in 9.2 min) are Murphy's primary defensive assignments. Washington's 0.471 FG% allowed and Flagg's 0.556 FG% suggest tight perimeter defense, which aligns with Dallas' overall elite 118.1 defensive rating.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Trey Murphy III▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	17	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	80%	7	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	3PM	3.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	0%	2	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	7	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	0%	31	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA30.5OVER7%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

P+R27OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

PTS21UNDER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

REB6UNDER2%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)7/2035%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

AST4UNDER16%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

3PM4UNDER38%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2.5UNDER25%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

FTA2.5UNDER9%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

STL1UNDER41%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

3PA9UNDER9%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Trey Murphy III

Assists OVER 3.5MEDIUM

Murphy's last 5 games show 4.4 APG (4.7 last 10), creating a 0.9-1.2 edge over the line. His playmaking is in an uptrend and he benefits from home court where assist metrics remain strong at 3.6 seasonally. This is his most reliable prop given Dallas' scoring suppression.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cooper Flagg	4	10	14	50%	50%
Max Christie	3	8	6	67%	100%
Klay Thompson	3	7	10	57%	71%
P.J. Washington	4	6	6	25%	31%
Naji Marshall	4	5	8	80%	80%

pointsUNDER 21.568%MEDIUM

Murphy averages just 14.93 PPG vs Dallas historically (15 games), and the Mavericks' 0.644 scoring suppression rate is elite. Home advantage pushes him to 22.47 PPG seasonally, but this matchup is a proven weakness.

assistsOVER 3.570%HIGH

Last 5 average of 4.4 APG significantly exceeds the line. Recent 10-game average stands at 4.7 APG. Murphy's playmaking is trending upward and the line sits below recent form.

threesOVER 3.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 games show 4.0 3PM average with season rate at 3.31 and recent stretch elevated. Dallas allows -1.683 three suppression (actually favorable), supporting higher volume.

reboundsUNDER 5.562%MEDIUM

Recent 5-game average of 5.4 RPG sits just below the line. Last 10 shows 4.9 RPG. While he played 41 and 37 minutes in recent games, standard role is 34-35 MPG and rebounding metrics are slightly declining.

praUNDER 25.566%MEDIUM

While assist/three upside is present, the depressed scoring ceiling vs Dallas (14.93 PPG history) drags the PRA combo below expected output despite home court.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS