PG
Bub Carrington▼
WAS · PG
PPG
9.7
RPG
3.7
APG
4.7
L5 PPG
8.4
Last 5 GamesAST
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-1.3
9.7
8.4
RPG-0.5
3.7
3.2
APG+0.3
4.7
5.0
OVER 3.5 AST
Last 5 games
4
Current Streak
4
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
3.5
2
UTA
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs UTA: 2 ast
4
NOP
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs NOP: 4 ast
6
MIA
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs MIA: 6 ast
5
ORL
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs ORL: 5 ast
8
BOS
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs BOS: 8 ast
Over 3.5
Under 3.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
AST
OVER 3.5
72%
PTS
UNDER 10.5
68%
REB
UNDER 3.5
62%
vs ??? (H2H)2 games
PPG
16.5
RPG
5.0
APG
5.0
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 4 | 15 | 72% | +19.0% | medium |
| Jamal Murray | 2 | 14 | 71% | +22.2% | low |
| Reed Sheppard | 2 | 11 | 93% | +29.3% | low |
| T.J. McConnell | 3 | 10 | 100% |
Carrington's Assists Offer Value as Home Facilitator vs. Back-to-Back Warriors
Bub Carrington is trending downward in scoring (8.1 PPG last 10 games vs. 9.7 season), but his assist production has held steady at 5.0-5.1 APG in recent windows. Playing at home against a fatigued Golden State team on a back-to-back, Carrington benefits from increased defensive focus on Washington's other scorers. His season home points average of 10.53 PPG and assists baseline of 4.72 APG suggest the 3.5 assists line is attainable, though his scoring ceiling appears limited given recent offensive struggles.
Stat Trends
PPG
8.4(↓ from 9.7)
APG
5.0(→ from 4.7)
Rebounds
3.2(↓ from 3.7)
Key Matchup
Brandin Podziemski has logged limited defense against Carrington (2.7 minutes in two prior meetings, allowing just 2 points), but sample sizes are minimal. Golden State's defense rates 114.23 (league-average) with slight scoring suppression, though no specific weak link is evident from the prior matchup data.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bub Carrington▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 1 | ✗ |
Bub Carrington▼ | Points | 10.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 4 | ✓ |
Bub Carrington▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
assistsOVER 3.572%HIGH
Carrington averaged 5.0-5.1 APG over last 5 and 10 games, consistently exceeding this line. Home court and Golden State's back-to-back status should support typical facilitation roles.
ML Scout Analysis
PRA19.5UNDER14%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼
REB3UNDER55%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 9x5/2025%▼
3PM2UNDER18%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼
P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼
PTS11.5OVER7%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼
FTM1UNDER50%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼
P+R14.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼
AST4.5OVER19%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼
3PA4UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼
FTA1UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼
R+A7OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼
Featured Pick
Bub Carrington
Assists OVER 3.5MEDIUM
Carrington's last 10-game assist average of 5.1 and last 5 at 5.0 provide consistent evidence above this line. At home against a back-to-back opponent, he should maintain his playmaking role despite scoring struggles. The -172 odds reflect good value on the over.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.