Last 5 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 4 | 21 | 50% | -12.6% | medium |
| De'Aaron Fox | 3 | 19 | 60% | -2.6% | medium |
| Austin Reaves | 3 | 15 | 28% | -30.4% | medium |
| Jalen Brunson | 2 | 15 | 11% |
Amen Thompson is in excellent form, averaging 22.2 PPG over his last 5 games with a season-high 26 points against Portland on March 6th. While the trend metric shows "down," his last 10 and last 5 averages (20.0 and 22.2 PPG respectively) significantly exceed his season average of 17.8 PPG, indicating recent improvement. Against the Lakers' mediocre defense (115.32 rating), Thompson has posted 17.25 PPG across 4 matchups, though those games featured limited minutes (29.75 MPG). With 3 days rest and the home court advantage, Thompson should see healthy playing time around his 37 MPG season average.
LeBron James is Thompson's most vulnerable defender on the Lakers, allowing 14 points on 50% FG in 10.6 prior minutes. Luka Dončić held Thompson to 3 points on 10% shooting in limited time (11.6 minutes), but the primary assignment will likely fall to LeBron, a favorable matchup for the streaking Thompson.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amen Thompson▼ | Points | 19.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 19 | ✗ |
Amen Thompson▼ | Assists | 5.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 5 | ✗ |
Amen Thompson▼ | Rebounds | 8.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 12 | ✗ |
Amen Thompson▼ | PRA | 25.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 36 | ✓ |
Thompson's last 5 PPG of 22.2 comfortably clears 19.5, and increased playing time (37 MPG season average vs 29.75 MPG in prior LAL games) should elevate production. LeBron James has allowed solid scoring in prior matchups, making this a sound value.
| low |
| Cooper Flagg | 4 | 14 | 31% | -27.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 3 | 15 | 5 | 22% | 28% |
| Luka Dončić | 3 | 11 | 7 | 27% | 32% |
| Marcus Smart | 3 | 5 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
| Deandre Ayton | 3 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Rui Hachimura | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Thompson's last 5 average of 22.2 PPG exceeds the line. Despite historical underperformance vs LAL (17.25 PPG), those games featured only 29.75 MPG; with expected 37 MPG tonight, OVER 19.5 is the play.
Last 5 average of 6.2 APG tops the line. Season assist mean of 5.25 is close but recent momentum and improved playmaking (3 of last 5 games with 6+ assists) favors the OVER.
Last 5 rebound average of 6.8 falls short of 8.5. Home games show a lower mean (6.8 RPG) than away games (8.48 RPG), working against the OVER.
Combining points (22.2), assists (6.2), and rebounds (6.8) from last 5 games totals 35.2 combined average, well above 25.5. Strong play for OVER.