PF
Jabari Smith Jr.▲
HOU · PF
PPG
15.4
RPG
6.9
APG
1.8
L5 PPG
14.0
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-1.4
15.4
14.0
RPG-0.5
6.9
6.4
APG+0.6
1.8
2.4
OVER 14.5 PTS
Last 5 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
14.5
3
GSW
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs GSW: 3 pts
17
SAS
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs SAS: 17 pts
23
TOR
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts
11
DEN
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts
16
NOP
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 vs NOP: 16 pts
Over 14.5
Under 14.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
OVER 14.5
72%
REB
UNDER 7.5
68%
AST
OVER 1.5
65%
3PM
UNDER 2.5
70%
vs ??? (H2H)9 games
PPG
14.6
RPG
7.0
APG
1.7
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Johnson | 4 | 17 | 42% | -12.1% | medium |
| Julius Randle | 2 | 15 | 42% | -6.9% | low |
| Trey Murphy III | 3 | 11 | 67% | +10.2% | medium |
| Brandon Ingram | 2 | 11 | 57% |
Smith Jr. Trending Up Against Soft Lakers Defense at Home
Jabari Smith Jr. is playing his best basketball with a 16.2 PPG average over his last 10 games, up from 15.4 on the season. He draws the Lakers' worst perimeter defense at home, where he averages 15.97 PPG and 7.21 RPG. LeBron James has allowed 39 points on 58.6% FG to opposing forwards, presenting a favorable matchup. With three days of rest and the Houston crowd behind him, Smith is positioned for an above-average scoring night.
Stat Trends
PPG
14.0(↑ from 15.4)
RPG
6.4(→ from 6.9)
Last 10 PPG
16.2(↑ from 15.4)
Key Matchup
LeBron James will likely defend Smith Jr., having allowed 39 points on 58.6% FG to opposing forwards in limited time. The Lakers' 115.32 defensive rating and -0.086 three-point suppression rate suggest vulnerabilities Smith can exploit.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Points | 14.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 22 | ✓ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 8 | ✗ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Assists | 1.5 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 100% | 0 | ✗ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 100% | 2 | ✓ |
ML Scout Analysis
3PA7UNDER41%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼
PRA23.5UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼
P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼
PTS14.5UNDER17%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼
REB6.5OVER7%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼
3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 7x14/2070%▼
FTM1.5UNDER42%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼
P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼
FTA2UNDER37%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x6/2030%▼
R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼
AST2UNDER20%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼
Featured Pick
Jabari Smith Jr.
Points OVER 14.5MEDIUM
Smith Jr.'s 16.2 PPG over last 10 games and 15.97 home average both exceed the 14.5 line. LeBron's poor defensive metrics against similar scorers and Houston's home-court advantage support an over play, though the narrow margin (0.5–1.5 points above the line) warrants moderate confidence.
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