Jaxson Hayes▼

LAL · C

PPG

7.0

RPG

4.0

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 5 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.2

7.0

9.2

RPG+0.6

4.0

4.6

APG+0.1

0.9

1.0

UNDER 5.5 PTS

Last 5 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

5.5

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 19 pts

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 9 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 5 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 5 pts

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 5 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 5.5

68%

REB

OVER 4.5

62%

AST

UNDER 0.5

70%

PRA

UNDER 6.5

64%

vs ??? (H2H)14 games

PPG

7.6

RPG

3.5

APG

0.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ivica Zubac	3	14	62%	-14.1%	medium
Oso Ighodaro	4	13	33%	-42.3%	medium
Jusuf Nurkić	3	13	79%	-4.2%	medium
Jay Huff	2	12	85%

Hayes Struggles in Rotation Role Against Houston's Stout Defense

Jaxson Hayes is in a clear downtrend, averaging just 7.2 PPG over his last 10 games despite increased minutes (22.6 MPG last 5). Against Houston, he's historically underperformed, posting only 7.6 PPG on 15 MPG in 14 career matchups. The Rockets' defense (109.63 rating, -1.32 scoring suppression) poses a legitimate challenge, and Hayes' limited sample against Houston defenders (minimal minutes per defender) offers no reliable edge. Playing on two days' rest as the away team, Hayes figures as a secondary contributor in a rotation role.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↓ from 7.0)

RPG

4.6(→ from 4.0)

MPG

22.6(↑ from 17.7)

Key Matchup

Houston's defense (109.63 rating) holds opponents to -1.32 scoring suppression, a slight advantage. Limited historical data on specific Rockets defenders (Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson) facing Hayes, with minimal minutes logged, so no specific defender matchup data available to exploit.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Result
Jaxson Hayes▼	Points	5.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	✓
Jaxson Hayes▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	✗
Jaxson Hayes▼	Assists	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	✓
Jaxson Hayes▼	PRA	6.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	0%	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)6/1932%▼

REB5UNDER59%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

PRA15UNDER10%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)5/1926%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

PTS8OVER7%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/1942%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

FTM2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

FTA3OVER4%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/1947%▼

R+A5.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/1958%▼

BLK1OVER2%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x7/1937%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Jaxson Hayes

Points UNDER 5.5MEDIUM

Hayes' 10-game average of 7.2 PPG and season mean of 7.0 PPG are above the line, but his 14-game career average vs. Houston (7.6 PPG on 15 MPG) combined with recent downtrend and away context suggest diminished scoring output. The market may be undervaluing Houston's defensive effectiveness and Hayes' secondary role.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Clint Capela	2	2	2	100%	100%
Alperen Sengun	1	2	0	0%	0%
Reed Sheppard	2	2	8	60%	80%
Dorian Finney-Smith	2	1	3	50%	75%
Amen Thompson	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 5.568%MEDIUM

Hayes averages 7.6 PPG vs. Houston on just 15 MPG historically. Recent 10-game average of 7.2 PPG suggests modest upside; the 5.5 line is close to his season mean of 7.0, but downtrend and away context favor the under.

reboundsOVER 4.562%MEDIUM

Hayes' recent mean (4.6 RPG last 5) and season mean (4.04) slightly favor the over. Away splits show 4.14 RPG; the line is right at the inflection point but recent form offers marginal edge.

assistsUNDER 0.570%HIGH

Hayes' season assist average is 0.93, but recent 5-game mean drops to 1.0, and his last 10-game mean is just 0.7. The 0.5 line is reasonable, but his limited playmaking role suggests modest probability of reaching it.

praUNDER 6.564%MEDIUM

Combined PPG (7.2 last 10) + RPG (4.5 last 10) + APG (0.7 last 10) = 12.4 projected, but away and defensive context reduce efficiency. The 6.5 line is conservative; lean under on reduced volume.

timelineUNDER 5.5 PTS