SF
Jaylen Wells—
MEM · SF
PPG
12.8
RPG
3.3
APG
1.7
L5 PPG
16.6
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+3.8
12.8
16.6
RPG-0.5
3.3
2.8
APG-0.3
1.7
1.4
OVER 11.5 PTS
Last 5 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
11.5
24
POR
2026-03-04
2026-03-04 vs POR: 24 pts
8
LAC
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs LAC: 8 pts
17
BKN
2026-03-09
2026-03-09 vs BKN: 17 pts
11
PHI
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs PHI: 11 pts
23
DAL
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs DAL: 23 pts
Over 11.5
Under 11.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
OVER 11.5
78%
3PM
OVER 1.5
72%
REB
UNDER 3.5
68%
AST
UNDER 1.5
65%
vs ??? (H2H)2 games
PPG
18.5
RPG
5.0
APG
4.0
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 3 | 25 | 53% | -5.6% | medium |
| CJ McCollum | 4 | 21 | 58% | +3.1% | medium |
| Luka Dončić | 3 | 21 | 63% | +11.9% | medium |
| Anthony Edwards | 3 | 20 | 45% |
Wells Heating Up Against Permissive Bulls Defense
Jaylen Wells is in excellent form, averaging 16.6 PPG over his last 5 games compared to his season average of 12.8 PPG, with a stable trend and recent scoring output of 23 and 24 points in his last two home games. Chicago's defense ranks in the bottom tier with a 120.29 defensive rating and 1.149 scoring suppression factor, creating a favorable matchup for a streaking scorer. Wells has also thrived historically against Chicago, averaging 18.5 PPG across 2 prior matchups. With both teams having equal rest (3 days, no back-to-backs), Wells projects for strong offensive production in a road game where he typically scores 13.3 PPG versus 12.26 at home.
Stat Trends
PPG
16.6(↑ from 12.8)
3PM
2.5(↑ from 1.9)
APG
1.4(↓ from 1.7)
Key Matchup
Chicago's defense is among the league's weakest at 120.29 defensive rating with 1.149 scoring suppression. Wells has minimal direct matchup data against specific Bulls defenders (Giddey limited minutes), but the overall defensive vulnerability plays directly into his scoring strengths.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaylen Wells▼ | Points | 11.5 | OVER | 78%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 16 | ✓ |
Jaylen Wells▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 0% | 2 | ✓ |
Jaylen Wells▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
Jaylen Wells▼ | Assists | 1.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 1 | ✓ |
ML Scout Analysis
PRA18.5UNDER37%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼
PTS12.5OVER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼
AST1.5UNDER33%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
FTM2UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%▼
STL1UNDER16%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
3PA5UNDER26%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼
R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼
P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼
REB3UNDER44%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x3/2015%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼
FTA2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼
P+R16UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼
3PM2UNDER34%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
Featured Pick
Jaylen Wells
Points OVER 11.5HIGH
Wells is in peak form (16.6 PPG last 5 games vs. 11.5 line), has dominated Chicago historically (18.5 PPG), and faces the league's bottom-tier defense. His recent ceiling of 24 points and strong shooting (43.1% FG, 35.6% 3PT) provide multiple scoring paths even if Chicago adjusts game-to-game.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.