SF
Matas Buzelis▲
CHI · SF
PPG
16.0
RPG
5.6
APG
2.1
L5 PPG
22.4
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+6.4
16.0
22.4
RPG+1.6
5.6
7.2
APG+0.3
2.1
2.4
OVER 16.5 PTS
Last 5 games
4
Current Streak
4
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
16.5
11
OKC
2026-03-03
2026-03-03 vs OKC: 11 pts
20
SAC
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs SAC: 20 pts
41
GSW
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs GSW: 41 pts
22
LAL
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs LAL: 22 pts
18
LAC
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 vs LAC: 18 pts
Over 16.5
Under 16.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
OVER 16.5
72%
REB
OVER 6.5
68%
3PM
OVER 2.5
65%
AST
UNDER 2.5
62%
vs ??? (H2H)2 games
PPG
7.0
RPG
1.5
APG
0.5
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikal Bridges | 4 | 16 | 60% | +6.7% | medium |
| AJ Green | 4 | 13 | 50% | -13.3% | medium |
| Ausar Thompson | 3 | 12 | 31% | -15.8% | medium |
| Brandon Ingram | 3 | 11 | 58% |
Buzelis Poised for Strong Home Performance Against Grizzlies Defense
Matas Buzelis is in excellent form, averaging 22.4 PPG and 7.2 RPG over his last 5 games with increased playing time (32.8 MPG), highlighted by a 41-point explosion against GSW. Memphis ranks 118.42 in defensive rating, making this a favorable matchup for the hot-shooting forward. Chicago is well-rested at home with 3 days since last game, and Buzelis has historically performed better at home (15.15 PPG season average home vs 16.94 away), though recent away games have fueled his upward trend.
Stat Trends
PPG
22.4(↑ from 16.0)
RPG
7.2(↑ from 5.6)
3P Made
3.2(↑ from 2.2)
APG
2.4(→ from 2.1)
Key Matchup
Memphis defense allows 118.42 points per 100 possessions with weak three-point suppression (34.4%), playing into Buzelis's recent hot shooting. Jaylen Wells minimal defensive matchup data (1.3 MPG) provides no specific defensive concern.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matas Buzelis▼ | Points | 16.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 29 | ✓ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 7 | ✓ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 0% | 5 | ✓ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
ML Scout Analysis
PTS18.5OVER11%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +4.0▼
PRA28.5OVER7%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼
P+A22OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼
AST2OVER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼
BLK1OVER5%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +3.0▼
3PA9UNDER44%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼
P+R27UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼
REB7UNDER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼
FTM3UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼
FTA4UNDER33%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼
R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼
3PM3UNDER43%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼
Featured Pick
Matas Buzelis
Points OVER 16.5MEDIUM
Buzelis is averaging 22.4 PPG over last 5 games with strong momentum and elevated playing time (32.8 MPG). Memphis's weak defensive rating (118.42) and Grizzlies' marginal three-point suppression create favorable conditions. However, limited sample against Memphis (2 games, 7 PPG) introduces slight caution, preventing high confidence despite solid form.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.