SG
Ty Jerome▲
MEM · SG
PPG
20.1
RPG
2.6
APG
5.4
L5 PPG
21.2
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+1.1
20.1
21.2
RPG-0.2
2.6
2.4
APG-0.4
5.4
5.0
UNDER 19.5 PTS
Last 5 games
3
Current Streak
3
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
19.5
22
GSW
2026-02-25
2026-02-25 vs GSW: 22 pts
14
MIN
2026-03-03
2026-03-03 vs MIN: 14 pts
23
LAC
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs LAC: 23 pts
26
PHI
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs PHI: 26 pts
21
DET
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 vs DET: 21 pts
Over 19.5
Under 19.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 19.5
72%
AST
OVER 4.5
65%
3PM
UNDER 2.5
68%
vs ??? (H2H)8 games
PPG
9.1
RPG
2.4
APG
3.6
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 3 | 12 | 70% | +12.6% | medium |
| Christian Braun | 2 | 8 | 33% | -14.1% | low |
| Sam Hauser | 1 | 5 | 0% | -47.4% | low |
| Gui Santos | 2 | 4 | 0% |
Jerome's Upward Trend Halts Against Elite Bulls Defense—Injury Concern Looms
Ty Jerome has been on an impressive run, averaging 21.2 PPG over his last 5 games with solid playmaking (5.0 APG), but a left shoulder injury listing him as Doubtful for tonight creates significant uncertainty. Chicago's defense ranks among the league's best (120.29 rating) and has been particularly effective at suppressing three-pointers (1.184 suppression factor), which conflicts with Jerome's 40.5% three-point shooting. Critically, Jerome's historical performance against Chicago is a major red flag—averaging just 9.1 PPG across 8 meetings on only 18.75 MPG, suggesting Chicago's defensive scheme presents structural problems for his game.
Stat Trends
PPG
21.2(↑ from 20.1)
APG
5.0(→ from 5.4)
3P%
2.8(↑ from 0.4)
Key Matchup
Chicago's defensive scheme has historically limited Jerome to 9.1 PPG across 8 prior matchups. Josh Giddey has limited defensive data (2.2 MIN against Jerome), but the Bulls' elite overall defense (120.29 rating) and three-point suppression (1.184 factor) present significant headwinds.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ty Jerome▼ | Points | 19.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 20% |
Ty Jerome▼ | Assists | 4.5 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Ty Jerome▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 100% |
pointsUNDER 19.5
ML Scout Analysis
P+A25.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1560%▼
PTS19UNDER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼
AST7UNDER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x3/1520%▼
PRA27OVER11%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼
3PM3UNDER21%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x3/1520%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
3PA7UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x4/1527%▼
R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%▼
REB2OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼
STL1UNDER20%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)4/1527%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
FTM2UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x7/1547%▼
FTA3UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x6/1540%▼
P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼
Featured Pick
Ty Jerome
Points UNDER 19.5HIGH
Jerome's 9.1 PPG historical average against Chicago is the most compelling data point, representing a stark 10-point differential from his season average. Combined with elite Bulls defense, three-point suppression, and left shoulder injury status (Doubtful), the under is heavily favored. Recent form is offset by defensive mismatch and health uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.