SF
Corey Kispert▲
ATL · SF
PPG
9.7
RPG
2.5
APG
1.7
L5 PPG
7.2
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-2.5
9.7
7.2
RPG-0.5
2.5
2.0
APG+0.7
1.7
2.4
UNDER 10.5 PTS
Last 5 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
10.5
7
MIL
2026-03-04
2026-03-04 vs MIL: 7 pts
7
PHI
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs PHI: 7 pts
2
DAL
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs DAL: 2 pts
7
BKN
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs BKN: 7 pts
13
MIL
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs MIL: 13 pts
Over 10.5
Under 10.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 10.5
62%
AST
OVER 1.5
58%
REB
UNDER 2.5
56%
3PM
UNDER 1.5
60%
vs ??? (H2H)15 games
PPG
9.5
RPG
2.3
APG
1.3
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Hauser | 4 | 9 | 56% | +3.6% | medium |
| Josh Okogie | 3 | 9 | 0% | -46.4% | medium |
| Naji Marshall | 4 | 9 | 31% | -21.4% | medium |
| Sion James | 4 | 7 | 50% |
Kispert Faces Tough Defensive Matchup; Points Projection Modest
Corey Kispert is averaging 9.7 PPG on the season with a slight uptick to 10.4 PPG over the last 10 games, but his last 5 games show a dip to 7.2 PPG on just 16.8 MPG—a concerning trend despite the overall upward arrow. Against Orlando, he has career averages of 9.5 PPG and 24.9 MPG, but the Magic's defense allows only 113.91 points per 100 possessions with strong three-point suppression (-1.332). Jalen Suggs, who has defended Kispert for 12.2 minutes historically, has held him to 10 points on 30.8% FG, while Paolo Banchero allowed 17 points but on a limited 9.7 minutes. At home with rest advantage, Kispert's season home average is 10.25 PPG, but recent form and limited minutes paint a cautious picture.
Stat Trends
PPG
7.2(↓ from 9.7)
3P%
7.2(↓ from 36.3)
MPG
16.8(↓ from 20.0)
APG
2.4(↑ from 1.7)
Key Matchup
Jalen Suggs has defended Kispert for 12.2 minutes historically, limiting him to 10 points on 30.8% FG—the most extensive defensive pairing available. While Paolo Banchero allowed 17 points in limited minutes (9.7), Suggs' proven ability to suppress Kispert's scoring is the key concern for tonight.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corey Kispert▼ | Points | 10.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
Corey Kispert▼ | Assists | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
Corey Kispert▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Corey Kispert▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 100% | 1 | ✓ |
ML Scout Analysis
P+R11.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)6/1833%▼
P+A10.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)8/1844%▼
R+A4OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/1850%▼
Featured Pick
Corey Kispert
Points UNDER 10.5MEDIUM
Despite season and last-10 averages supporting the over, Kispert's last 5-game slump (7.2 PPG) on reduced minutes paired with Orlando's elite defensive rating and Jalen Suggs' historical success against him creates a compelling under. Recent form trumps season averages in prop evaluation.
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